68-point swing and a Tonga win - how England avoid World Cup exit

Published24 October 2026

Sixty-eight. That is the magic number for England.

For Brian McDermott's side to reach the semi-finals of the Rugby League World Cup, a specific series of events needs to happen next weekend.

On the backfoot since being humbled 30-12 by Tonga in their opening game, England responded with a crushing 82-0 victory over France to keep their dreams alive.

It means England need to beat co-hosts Papua New Guinea in their final group match in Wollongong next Friday – then hope Tonga beat Samoa, two days later in Sydney.

Samoa though have the upper hand on Tonga. They won the last match between the sides 34-6 in October last year, also in Australia.

If Samoa win, England will be eliminated because of their inferior head-to-head record against Tonga.

But if Tonga win, it comes down to points difference between England and Samoa.

England's difference, after the Tonga loss and France win, is +64. Samoa, following hefty victories over the French and PNG, is +132 – which is 68 better than England.

So, 68 is the number to remember. If England beat PNG by 68 points or more, then any Tongan win is good enough for McDermott's men. Less than 68, and they must hope Tonga are really inspired by Pacific rivalry to put one over their island neighbours.

England hope the numbers go in their favour to avoid an unwanted first. In 16 previous Rugby League World Cups, staged in varying formats, neither England nor Great Britain have ever finished outside the top four. And every time the format has included semi-finals, they have got there.

Group B-C: The remaining games

Fri, 30 Oct: England v Papua New Guinea: Wollongong, 09:05 GMT

Fri, 30 Oct: England v Papua New Guinea: Wollongong, 09:05 GMT

Sun, 1 Nov: Lebanon v France: Parramatta, Sydney: 06:40 GMT

Sun, 1 Nov: Lebanon v France: Parramatta, Sydney: 06:40 GMT

Sun, 1 Nov: Tonga v Samoa: Parramatta, Sydney: 09:05 GMT

Sun, 1 Nov: Tonga v Samoa: Parramatta, Sydney: 09:05 GMT

'I'm not sure what else we could have done'

"What we have done today is enormous, given the context," McDermott told his post-match media conference in Perth.

"Knowing we had to win big - and we have had candid conversations about that this week - we have done that without getting hot. Everything was measured and planned.

"Whatever the results next week, we have to finish strong - if we go home next week, we will be disappointed, but I'm not sure what else we could have done."

McDermott's final comments may allude to the controversial format of this men's World Cup, which features an unbalanced group stage that has not helped England's prospects.

Pool A has four teams - Australia, New Zealand, Fiji and the Cook Islands - fighting for two semi-final places in a round-robin format. Simple enough.

But Pools B and C are combined into one six-team league, from which only the top two will make the semi-finals. England, drawn in Pool B, play the three Pool C teams - Tonga, France and Papua New Guinea.

It means while England are competing with Samoa for a semi-final place, they will not actually play each other.

It also means that while New Zealand lost their opening fixture against Australia, their path to the semis remains simple – win their final two group games.

England too had to win their last two pool matches but also needed snookers.

There is some reason behind the maddening format, introduced after France – who were supposed to host a 16-team men's World Cup last summer – pulled out because of money troubles.

Australia stepped in with New Zealand and Papua New Guinea, with the number of teams involved shrunk from 16 to 10 to cut costs.

This format also means every team plays three group games, there are no fallow weekends and the whole tournament can be done in a relatively tight five weeks.

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'We have given ourselves half a chance'

But it is unquestionably harder on sides in Groups B and C. The fact Australia and New Zealand are in Group A won't help the perception of the tournament being skewed towards the southern hemisphere giants.

"We were the best we could be," England captain George Williams said of the France win. "The situation has been difficult, but we have given ourselves half a chance."

It also leaves England fans with a nagging feeling their side are only producing their best when they are already halfway home.

After a sluggish, disconnected showing against Tonga, England were slow starting against France before finding their mojo - no tries until the 23rd minute; by the final whistle they had run in 14.

England's UK based players took nearly 48 hours to travel out to Perth. BBC Sport understands that the tournament organiser planned England's travel itinerary for the World Cup.

The convoluted route featured a bus journey to London, then flights via Singapore and Sydney rather than straight to Perth, where they played their first two games.

McDermott's side did not play a warm-up fixture and completed just two full training sessions before taking on Tonga.

"We have been together for only five field sessions; we are building something here," said McDermott. "The tries we scored before half time were what we are chasing.

"With a long build up, we could have achieved some special things."

Ifs, buts and maybes. All England can do now is aim for 68 points, and hope.

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