AI election forecast project hung councils in Joburg and Tshwane as DA gains across metros

Friday’s midday AI election projections forecast hung councils in Johannesburg and Tshwane, an outright DA majority in Cape Town, and MK Party dominance in eThekwini. Picture: Simon Majadibodu / IOL

While the numbers continue to fluctuate, midday AI projections on Friday were able to forecast the final outcomes of the Local Government Elections, showing the Democratic Alliance (DA) leading the vote share in Johannesburg with between 38% and 41%.

With 48% of the ballots counted, the African National Congress (ANC) is tracking between 18% and 20% in Joburg, while ActionSA is projected to secure between 15% and 17%.

This points directly toward a hung council in Johannesburg, ensuring that no single party can govern without entering into at least a three-party coalition or an ANC-DA national-style agreement.

In Tshwane, with 69% of the tally completed, the DA is projected to capture between 31% and 33%, followed by ActionSA as the second-largest party at 22% to 24%. Significantly, this projection positions ActionSA ahead of the ANC in the capital metro, with the governing party expected to take 21% to 23% of the vote.

Cape Town delivered no surprises: with 58% of votes tallied, the DA is on course to secure a decisive outright majority of between 60% and 63%.

Meanwhile, eThekwini is projecting strong MK Party dominance with 46% of ballots counted. The MKP is forecast to take between 42% and 46%, the DA is projected at 21% to 23%, and the ANC sits in third position with 15% to 18%.

In Nelson Mandela Bay, where 85% of votes are already processed, the DA leads with a projected 43% to 45%, followed by the ANC on 26% to 28%.

Buffalo City shows 98% of returns counted, where the ANC holds 42%, the United Democratic Movement (UDM) claims 18%, and the DA sits on 17%.

In Mangaung, with 77% of votes tabulated, predictive modeling puts the DA at 35% to 37% and the ANC between 31% and 33%.

Finally, in Polokwane, with just 39% of the vote counted, the DA is projected to secure between 35% and 37%, closely tracked by the ANC forecasted at 31% to 33%.