Air Force vs. Army prediction, pick, odds, spread: Falcons seek Commander in Chief's trophy in West Point

The second of three games between the service academies will take place on Saturday night (7:30 p.m. ET) on CBS when Army hosts Air Force in West Point. 

For the Falcons, a win on the road would secure the Commander in Chief's trophy after they beat Navy in a 14-9 battle earlier this year in Colorado Springs. If Air Force can beat Army, it'd give them the Commander in Chief's trophy for the first time since 2022. The Falcons are 6-2 and fresh off a win over UConn to get to bowl-eligible, but face quarterback injury concerns and may start freshman Howard Fisher, who began the year as the third stringer. 

Army, meanwhile, has no questions at quarterback, where it's the Cale Hellums show as the team's leading passer and rusher. Army's problem in its three losses this season, including last week against Memphis, has been on defense, where they're 83rd in the country in scoring defense and are 80th in rush defense. 

Service academy games tend to operate on a different plane of existence from other games -- take Air Force's win over Navy, two teams that have played largely in shootouts, but ended up in a 14-9 battle. That's what happens when two option attacks go head to head, and Saturday night's showdown will likely be determined by which team can pop a big play or two against defenses well-versed in how to handle the option. 

Air Force vs. Army: Need to know

Air Force QB uncertainty: As mentioned above, Evan Medders is banged up with a turf toe injury and missed Air Force's win over UConn last week, with Fisher taking over. Medders was already a replacement for Liam Szarka, and since Szarka went down with an injury the Falcons have all but abandoned the passing attack. 

As an option team, the pass game was already secondary, but Medders and Fisher have a combined 23 pass attempts for 128 yards and two touchdowns. There is almost no threat of the pass with either in the game, and Army's defense will be flying downhill looking to stonewall the run game.

The concerns with changing quarterbacks in an option attack are whether they'll make the right reads and whether they'll make ball-handling mistakes that lead to turnovers. In a game where points are at a premium, turnovers can swing a game. However, if Medders is compromised as a runner, that's a different limitation, and it might be better to have the threat of the quarterback run than to have someone ailing with a bit more experience. 

Can Cale Hellums create some big plays?: The quarterback advantage is clearly on Army's side, where Hellums is dynamic as a runner and can pop a pass play over the top when the opportunity presents itself. Clock control, field position and ball security are always the name of the game in service academy games because it's so hard to create explosives against defenses so well-versed against the option. 

However, a dynamic quarterback can change that in either the run or pass game, and if Hellums can create a couple explosive plays at home, that can swing this game in Army's favor. Whether that's making a man miss in space on the outside running it or hitting one of the few shot plays in the passing game they'll attempt, Hellums has to make the quarterback advantage apparent for the Black Knights. 

The hidden yards battle: Field position is everything in an option vs. option game, and that puts pressure on the special teams units to take care of business. The punt teams tend to get a workout in these games, and getting punts off cleanly and covering them well to force the offenses to do the heavy lifting on gaining yards is key for both teams. 

Both teams have excellent punters averaging over 47 yards per boot and they've been stingy about allowing returns. Air Force's punt coverage unit struggled a touch early in the year, but they've allowed three total punt returns in their last five games for six yards. Army, meanwhile, has given up 33 total yards on six returns all season. If either of these teams can make the other blink in the punt game, it can be as big as a turnover in a game with few possessions. 

Where to watch Air Force vs. Army live

Date: Saturday, Nov. 7 | Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Blaik Field at Michie Stadium -- West Point, New York

TV: CBS | Live stream: CBSSports.com, CBS Sports App
Streaming on Paramount+ Premium

Air Force vs. Army prediction, picks

On paper, these two teams should score plenty on each other, but we know the trends and statistical profiles don't matter much in service academy games. Air Force has played in two games all season against FBS opponents that finished below 40 points, but one was that 14-9 win over Navy. Army has similarly gone over this total in all but two games, but none of that matters. This game will be decided by who creates the handful of big plays -- in any of the three phases of the game -- and who can lean on the other team to try and break them down by the end of 60 minutes. Pick: Under 44.5

SportsLine's proven computer model has simulated every Week 10 college football game 10,000 times. Visit SportsLine now to see the picks, all from the model that's 80-77 on top-rated CFB picks this season.

Air Force vs. Army prediction, spread, live stream

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