Alabama vs. LSU prediction, pick, odds, spread: Crimson Tide, Tigers collide in Death Valley

One of the most exciting modern rivalries in college football takes center stage on Saturday when No. 5 Alabama and No. 14 LSU meet in Baton Rouge for the 91st meeting in the series. The Crimson Tide hold a 58-27-5 advantage overall, but it's the 13-2 record in the past 15 meetings that has given them the upper hand in a battle between programs that would otherwise be considered peers. 

This is, after all, set to be the 25th time that both schools are inside the top 15 of the AP Top 25 poll and with Alabama's recent crowning as a top-five team in the College Football Playoff rankings, there's even more ranked-on-ranked intrigue. LSU is hoping that the home field advantage of Death Valley can play a role in the game, as the Tigers are 32-3 in their last 35 home games in Tiger Stadium. 

Speaking of streaks, the game also presents LSU coach Lane Kiffin with a chance to finally defeat Alabama as a head coach. The former Crimson Tide offensive coordinator lost to Nick Saban once as Tennessee's head coach in 2009, then four times between 2020-23 as Ole Miss' head coach, when they were SEC West division rivals. That 0-5 record against the Crimson Tide, paired with LSU's recent struggles in the series, provides plenty of extra motivation for the home team looking to roar back into the playoff race. 

Alabama vs. LSU: Need to know

Alabama's injury report will be an X-factor: There will be key updates throughout the week, perhaps all the way up to warm-ups, that will determine the health of the Crimson Tide and their ability to perform to the expectations of their top-five rating. Starting center Racin Delgatty has missed multiple games while dealing with injury, and his absence has been noticeable on an offensive line that has cooled off since putting up 49+ points in consecutive wins against Florida State, South Carolina and Mississippi State. The Crimson Tide have failed to record 70+ rushing yards as a team in each of their last two games and allowed 21 sacks in SEC play, which ranks 14th among 16 teams in the league. Alabama will also be looking for updates from star wide receiver Ryan Coleman-Williams and cornerback Zabien Brown, adding to the unknowns for how the Tide will stack up against LSU. 

LSU passing attack rounding into form: No one in the SEC had a more productive passing attack in the month of October than LSU, which averaged 339.5 passing yards across all four games last month. The Tigers went 3-1 across those games, only losing to top-10 Kentucky by one point in Lexington on a walk-off two-point try. LSU now leads the SEC and ranks tied for 7th nationally on the season, averaging 318.0 passing yards per game, and the improvements have come with both Sam Leavitt's improved play and the emergence of Jackson Harris as a go-to receiver. A transfer from Hawaii, Harris played three whole games before scoring his first touchdown of the season but has exploded ever since with seven touchdown catches across the last five games. That includes four multiple-touchdown games and a yards-per-reception average (17.6) that ranks 4th among all SEC pass catchers. 

Kalen DeBoer set up in some favorable situational spots: When Alabama hired Kalen DeBoer away from Washington to take over in Tuscaloosa after Nick Saban's retirement, his track record as a big-time, high-leverage coach met the demands of the job. Since Alabama is almost always playing in high-pressure games against quality opponents, the school needed to know that Saban's successor would be ready for those moments. Currently, DeBoer is 21-8 against AP-ranked teams as a head coach, which is the fourth-best record in AP poll history with a minimum of 20 games coached (.724 winning percentage). His company on that list, for those unaware, is one spot behind Urban Meyer (.746) and one spot ahead of Kirby Smart (.710). DeBoer has also won eight straight games after a bye, with the last defeat in this spot coming in 2020 as the head coach of Fresno State.  

Where to watch Alabama vs. LSU live

Date: Saturday, Nov. 7 | Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Tiger Stadium -- Baton Rouge, Louisiana
TV: ABC | Live stream: Fubo (try free)

Alabama vs. LSU prediction, picks

While the combination of LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt and Alabama quarterback Keelon Russell provides the potential for plenty of points, this game could end up being decided by both defenses. Alabama's offensive injuries have clearly limited their ability to execute on schedule, and LSU's defense represents the best test they've faced since the loss at Tennessee. In the same manner, LSU's pass attack could set them up for some of the turnovers that have powered Alabama's excellence this season (+7 turnover margin is tied for 11th nationally) and prevent touchdowns even after successful drives. All in all, it points to a lower-scoring classic, where I'll favor the home team to make big plays late. Pick: Under 52.5 

SportsLine's proven computer model has simulated every Week 10 college football game 10,000 times. Visit SportsLine now to see the picks, all from the model that's 80-77 on top-rated CFB picks this season.

Alabama vs. LSU prediction, spread, live stream

Chip Patterson 4 min read

Era of Eck: Inside the New Mexico coach’s ‘overnight success’ Brandon Marcello 21 min read

Six Pack: What to play for Miami-Notre Dame, Alabama-LSU, more Tom Fornelli 9 min read

Will Stein has transformed Kentucky into contender in record time John Talty 12 min read

Seven Week 10 games that will define the College Football Playoff race Shehan Jeyarajah 3 min read

NCAA approves NFL-style OTAs, calendar changes for 2027 Austin Nivison 2 min read

Texas RB Hollywood Smothers out for the season with torn MCL Austin Nivison 3 min read

CFP resume rankings: Why Kentucky should be ahead of Utah, Indiana David Cobb 6 min read

LSU working to add former Baylor coach Dave Aranda to staff Shehan Jeyarajah 1 min read

How Malachi Toney's injury impacts the 2026 Heisman Trophy race Austin Nivison 3 min read