Baylor vs. UCF odds, picks: Use Polymarket promo code CBSSPORTS for $25 bonus in CFB Week 9

Week 9 of the 2026 college football season continues on Friday, Oct. 30, with a Big 12 showdown featuring the Baylor Bears and UCF Knights. The Bears fired head coach Dave Aranda after a 25-24 loss to Kansas in a game where Baylor had an 11-point lead heading into the final quarter. The Knights are on a high after upsetting then-No. 2 BYU in double overtime 39-31. If you're looking to make predictions on this game, use the latest Polymarket promo code CBSSPORTS and get $25 in bonus trading credits after making a $10+ deposit at one of the top prediction market apps. Get started at Polymarket with the promo code CBSSPORTS:

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Baylor vs. UCF predictions on Polymarket

Baylor to win: 49%

UCF to win: 52%

UCF to win by more than 1.5 points: 49%

More than 48.5 points: 48%

Baylor to win: 49%

Players tend to get amped up after a coach is dismissed, especially if the results have been poor in the lead-up to the move. Aranda was never quite able to recapture the magic of his 12-win campaign in 2021, and a string of poor results made the inevitable a reality. Baylor's biggest problem is inconsistency at the quarterback position as DJ Lagway and Nate Bennett have struggled. Gavin Freeman is a talented receiver, but this Baylor offense lacks potency overall. Baylor's defense has been excellent, ranking in the top 20 in points allowed per game. Unfortunately, this offense hasn't delivered. Baylor wins in 43% of SportsLine Projection Model simulations.

A Baylor win on Polymarket is 49%. That reflects a 49% probability in the latest Baylor vs. UCF odds.

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UCF to win: 52%

Keyone Jenkins was clinical against BYU, throwing for 293 yards and three touchdowns with zero interceptions. Duke Watson continued his phenomenal season with 94 yards on 6.3 yards per carry, and the Knights were able to get a stop in double overtime to pull off one of the program's great upsets. UCF has not lost at home yet this season, and the SportsLine model has the Knights prevailing on Friday in 57% of simulations.

A UCF win is 52% at Polymarket, reflecting a 52% probability in the latest Baylor vs. UCF odds.

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UCF to win by more than 1.5 points: 49%

The Knights have won all four of their home games so far this season. They beat BYU and TCU by one possession while knocking off Georgia State 44-30. It's hard to ascertain much from their 73-6 win in the season opener over Bethune-Cookman. The Bears took out Arizona State on the road 55-19 but have lost two in a row coming into this showdown. The Knights win by more than 1.5 points in 54% of SportsLine simulations.

UCF to win by more than 1.5 points is 49% at Polymarket. Baylor to win, or lose by less than 1.5 points, is 52%.

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More than 48.5 points: Yes 48%, No 53%

Baylor is averaging 29.1 points per game while UCF is putting up 32.7. If we look specifically at the last few weeks, the numbers are much different. The Bears have managed just 30 points over their last two games, while the Knights had 45 points across two losses on the road before getting to 39 points in double overtime against BYU. The SportsLine model does see a lot of points on Friday night, as these teams combine for more than 48.5 points in 65.2% of simulations.

Baylor and UCF to top 48.5 points is 48% at Polymarket, while the teams scoring less than 48.5 combined points is 53%.

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