Brewers vs. Rays World Series Game 3 picks: Freddy Peralta faces former club at crucial point in series

After a day off for travel Sunday, the World Series is back tonight, with Game 3 at Tropicana Field as the Rays host the Brewers. Tampa Bay faces a 2-0 deficit in the Fall Classic, but it just might have the right pitcher on the mound in former Milwaukee right-hander Freddy Peralta. This could be his final start with the club, as he is a pending free agent. DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Rays as -120 money-line betting favorites, while the Over/Under for total runs is 7. Bet $5+ on World Series Game 1 to get $200 in bonus bets and three free months of NBA League Pass at DraftKings Sportsbook:

It's scheduled for an 8 ET start on Fox and there are no weather concerns at the Trop. With the Rays -120 at DraftKings, they are taking 62% of bets but only 6% of handle. On the total of 7, there's a heavy lean to the Over. On the series line, Milwaukee is -750 and Tampa Bay +500. Brewers in five is the +210 leader. Of the 57 teams to take a 2-0 lead in the Fall Classic, 46 went on to win. Claim the best Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS55, trade $25, and receive a $55 bonus here:

I'm pretty stunned that Tampa Bay, behind co-ace Drew Rasmussen, blew a 4-0 first-inning lead in Game 2 on Saturday and lost 5-4. The Rays made the kinds of mistakes in the field and on the basepaths that they rarely do. They also are just 3-for-20 (.150) with runners in scoring position in the series after leading the majors with a .283 average during the regular season.

"The lesson is that we've got to play clean vs. those guys," said left fielder Chandler Simpson, who had an error. "They grind, and we've got to do the same."

Then again, maybe we shouldn't have been surprised, as the Brewers also rallied from down 4-0 in Game 4 of the NLCS in completing the sweep of the Dodgers. They are the fifth team in MLB history to twice overcome four-run deficits for victories in a single postseason, the first since the Phillies in 2022. Milwaukee has won nine games in these playoffs, and seven have been comeback victories. This is ust such a well-managed team by Pat Murphy – maybe the Cubs got it wrong hiring Craig Counsell -- and they never stopped applying the pressure in Game 2.

Milwaukee's seven-game playoff winning streak is a team record – longest by any club since Texas had eight straight in 2023 -- and it has amazingly outscored opponents 15-2 from the seventh inning on so far. I sure don't want a sweep, and there hasn't been one in the World Series since Giants  over  Tigers in 2012. The Brewers look to become the first club since the LCS became a best-of-7 in 1985 to sweep the LCS and World Series.

Maybe tonight's starting pitcher doesn't matter regarding Milwaukee, as a reliever has been credited with the victory in eight of its nine playoff wins. That has tied the 2015 Royals for the most wins by relievers in a single postseason.

It's lefty Robert Gasser on the hill for Game 3. This year was his third in the majors but his first full campaign, and he was 5-5 with a 3.87 ERA in 21 appearances (20 starts). He hasn't gotten a decision in two playoff outings, with a 1.00 ERA spanning nine innings and only six hits allowed. Gasser has never faced the Rays, although one Tampa Bay guy has seen him in catcher Liam Hicks (0-for-2).

The SportsLine Projection Model projects Gasser at 5.4 innings. 4.8 strikeouts, 4.4 hits allowed and 1.9 earned runs. He wasn't as good away during the season, with a 4.36 ERA compared to 3.40 at home. 

Fans can try MLB betting on the best sports betting apps and get bonuses. The SportsLine Projection Model also has picks on games like Rays-Brewers from its 10,000 simulations, and our experts also offer insights on games from every sport each day.

Rays vs. Brewers MLB same-game parlay

Tampa Bay alt +1

Alt Under 5.5 runs total F5

DraftKings SGP price: +116 (subject to change)

Back on Jan. 21, the Brewers traded Peralta to the Mets in what turned out to be utter thievery for prospects Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat. Then of course the Mets flipped a struggling Peralta to Tampa Bay for pennies on the dollar around the trade deadline.

Peralta has been great since Aug. 26, not allowing more than one earned run in any outing. In the playoffs, he is 2-0 with a hold and 1.08 ERA in four appearances spanning 16.2 innings. He was the ALCS MVP. Peralta faced his former Brewers squad back on July 20 while still with the Mets (second-to-last outing with them), and got rocked for seven runs over 5.1 innings. 

Andrew Vaughn and Cooper Pratt both went yard off Peralta. The model projects him at 5.1 innings, 5.2 strikeouts, 4.8 hits allowed and 2.2 earned runs. At the Trop, Peralta has a 1.45 ERA in 37 1/3 innings over seven starts since joining Tampa Bay.

What the Rays clearly need to do is get closer Bryan Baker involved, as he has yet to pitch in the series. Baker has converted 35 straight saves and the Rays are 92-0 when leading after eight innings this season. They were also 31-17 during the RS against lefties like Gasser. Place your Fall Classic wagers and get up to $1,500 in bonus bets back at BetMGM Sportsbook:

This will be the first World Series game at Tropicana Field since Game 2 on Oct. 23, 2008. That joint isn't jumping often, but when it is, it's definitely a home-field advantage. I will say that the model has Brewers winning by a score of 4.3-3.7. I don't really agree but flipped to Tampa Bay +1 for insurance purposes. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.

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