BRICS+ Series: Gulf powers rush to Tehran as the clock runs down to polling day

Wang Yi, a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee, presides over the closing meeting of the talks between a Saudi delegation and an Iranian delegation in Beijing, capital of China, March 10, 2023.

Three of the Middle East’s most consequential states sent senior figures to Tehran on Monday in an attempt to stop a stalled war from reigniting. Saudi Arabia’s defence minister, Prince Khalid bin Salman, travelled alongside Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir, and Turkey’s intelligence chief, Ibrahim Kalin, to meet President Masoud Pezeshkian and other senior Iranian officials. Riyadh said the mission was meant to encourage dialogue and back the mediation efforts of Qatar and Pakistan, while Iranian state media reported that all four countries had agreed to keep talking.

The visit matters chiefly because of its timing. The war began in February, when US and Israeli strikes killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with much of his military leadership. Donald Trump has since promised not to attack Iran before the American midterm elections on 3 November, yet speculation is mounting that he may order fresh strikes once the ballots are counted. Two US officials told CNN that sufficient forces are now in the region, and that any new operation would go well beyond the limited raids on radars and launchers seen in recent months.

Saudi Arabia has more reason than most to want calm. Iran and its proxies have struck Saudi oil facilities and civilian infrastructure throughout the conflict, and the Houthis in Yemen have lately escalated. Their attacks on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport have killed at least 13 people, wounded more than 300 and forced the airport to close. President Trump has accused the Houthis of stepping up attacks to push up energy prices before the election, and has warned that he will return to the matter once the vote is over. Reuters has reported that Iran’s Revolutionary Guards encouraged the escalation, which Tehran denies. Monday’s meeting was the first high-level contact between Iran and Saudi Arabia since the Houthi surge began. 

Oil and shipping explain why the stakes reach far beyond the Gulf. Iran has largely stepped back from heavy missile barrages on its neighbours in favour of economic pressure, chiefly by menacing the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and gas normally passes. A record 12 vessels reported attacks in and around the strait in the week to 11 October, and although Middle Eastern oil exports have recovered to above their pre-war level, shipping costs remain high. Brent crude has recently topped $105 a barrel, which is awkward for a president whose handling of the war 65 per cent of Americans disapprove of, according to Pew. 

The delegation’s composition is also telling. Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan form the Mecca Alliance, a new pact under which an attack on one is treated as an attack on all, uniting Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, Turkey’s military strength and Saudi financial muscle. Analysts see it as part of a broader effort to build a more independent regional security architecture as doubts grow about Washington’s reliability. Tehran has urged its neighbours to expel American bases, and some Iranians, including the former foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, regard the initiative as a chance to loosen the region’s dependence on the United States.

Few expect a breakthrough. Hamidreza Azizi of the International Crisis Group argues that Tehran wants credible guarantees against renewed attack, and it is hard to see how Riyadh, Ankara or Islamabad could supply them or sway President Trump. Unless the visitors bring something genuinely new, he says, the trip looks more like a last-minute effort to avert war than the start of a diplomatic process. The Saudis’ position is delicate. They lobbied against resuming major combat in August, yet Washington would need Saudi airspace to carry it out. 

That leaves the region watching the calendar. Within days, the political constraint on Mr Trump falls away, while the military and economic pressures on every party remain. The Gulf’s diplomats have bought themselves, at best, a little time. Whether they can turn it into something durable depends on whether Washington and Tehran are willing to give them anything to work with. For ordinary people from Riyadh to Karachi, the cost of failure will be measured in missile alerts and fuel bills.

Past chairman of the BRICS Business Council and co-chairman of the BRICS Media Forum and the BRNN

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