Coalition governments could hamper service delivery after local govt elections - Mbeki

Former president Thabo Mbeki believes South Africa is heading towards another round of coalition governments after the November 4 local government elections, warning that competing political interests could undermine decisive action on the country’s pressing challenges.

Image: Ayanda Ndamane/ Independent Media

Former President Thabo Mbeki believes no political party will secure more than 50% of the vote in the upcoming local government elections, and that several metros and districts could end up with coalition governments. 

Mbeki has warned that coalition arrangements could make it difficult for governments to take decisive action to address South Africa’s pressing challenges, including unemployment, poverty and poor service delivery.

He made the remarks on the sidelines of the Africa and African Diaspora Conference in Boksburg, where he reflected on the political landscape ahead of the November 4 local government elections.

“Well, everybody is campaigning. Everybody is campaigning. But I suspect that what we are going to get is these coalition governments after the election, because I don't imagine that they would emerge from the elections with any party that is 50% plus one,” he told the public broadcaster.

“So I think we're going to end up with lots of coalition governments in the metros and the districts and all that.”

South Africa has 257 municipalities, comprising eight metropolitan municipalities, 44 district municipalities and 205 local municipalities.

Mbeki, a senior ANC member, said coalition governments could struggle to develop and implement clear policies.

“The challenge about that is that then we may not get the kind of decisive policies to deal with the challenges that the country is facing because people are going to enter into compromises,” he said.

“It may be that as a result of the compromises, of course, people then come into government, but whether these matters require decisive and clear action by the government, whether that will come up, I don't know.”

However, Mbeki said citizens should remain engaged and hold whichever parties form governments accountable for addressing the country’s pressing challenges.

“But I think it will be correct for all of us as citizens to say whatever happens in the elections, there are these challenges that are facing the country, challenges of poverty, challenges of unemployment, challenges of service delivery,” he said. 

Citizens, he added, should not simply vote and return home, but continue to monitor whether the governments formed after the elections address people’s needs.

Political parties are intensifying their campaigns ahead of elections, seeking to secure support amid growing concerns about service delivery and the performance of municipal administrations.

The ANC, which has governed numerous municipalities over the years, faces pressure to regain voters’ trust amid criticism over service delivery failures, alleged corruption, maladministration and the management of public finances.

Despite these challenges, the party maintains that it will emerge victorious in the upcoming elections.

The DA, meanwhile, is seeking to expand its support and take control of municipalities currently governed by the ANC. 

Despite these challenges, ANC president Cyril Ramaphosa has dismissed polling suggesting that the Democratic Alliance (DA) could emerge as the largest party in six of the eight metropolitan municipalities.

Ramaphosa made the remarks during a campaign visit to Kingsley Hostel in Ward 38, Mamelodi, north-east of Pretoria, on Monday, where he conducted door-to-door engagements ahead of the elections.

“The studies are just studies. We know what's happening on the ground. The ANC's campaign is reaching a very high peak and our people are responding very positively,” he said.

“We are confident of an outright victory. And of course many other parties will always dream of victory, but victory belongs to the ANC.”

The DA’s internal polling suggests it could emerge as the largest party in six of the eight metros, according to a report by News24.

The figures cited in the report have not been publicly released by the party.

According to the reported figures, the DA leads the ANC in Johannesburg with 39% support compared with 20% for the governing party.

In Mangaung, the DA is reportedly on 36%, narrowly ahead of the ANC at 34%. In Tshwane, the DA is projected to receive 35% compared with the ANC’s 27%, while in Ekurhuleni the DA reportedly stands at 33% and the ANC at 20%.

In Nelson Mandela Bay, the DA is reportedly on 44%, compared with 24% for the ANC. In Cape Town, the DA is projected to retain its lead, although its support is expected to decline from 58% in the 2021 local government elections to 51%.

In eThekwini, the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK Party) reportedly leads with 37%, while the ANC stands at 14%.

The reported figures suggest that coalition negotiations could be central to forming municipal governments in several metros.

Buffalo City was not included in the reported polling data.

Political analyst Professor Metji Makgoba, from the University of Limpopo, said coalition governments could make it difficult for parties to pursue clear policy agendas because of competing interests.

“Coalitions are problematic in the sense that there is no political party that can have what he said was a clear agenda,” he said.

“So it's a plurality of interest which is going to fragment decision-making. So here we're dealing with stakeholder pluralism in which all political parties will want their ideas to be in government and in turn that is going to create chaos.”

Makgoba acknowledged that some people view coalitions as a way to reduce corruption and maladministration by preventing a single party from exercising unchecked power.

“Although people have been saying that coalitions are good because there will be less corruption. I mean that's a fair assessment because South Africa has been perturbed by maladministration, corruption and so on. And when you come up with this idea of coalition you sort of know this is not a bad arrangement.”

“It is actually a bad arrangement in the sense that for you to pass a budget you need to buy support, you need interest from other stakeholders within that particular government,” he said.

Makgoba added that disagreements between coalition partners could lead to internal divisions and hinder the implementation of policies, even when a party believes its proposals would benefit residents

Meanwhile, political analyst Professor Theo Neethling said the outlook for the upcoming local government elections pointed to further fragmentation of South Africa’s political landscape, with coalitions likely to play a decisive role in several municipalities and metropolitan areas.

Neethling argued that the ANC’s historically dominant position had weakened, while the DA was increasingly emerging as a competitive political force.

“The DA’s latest internal poll places the party’s national support at 28.4%, compared to 29.6% for the ANC. Independent polls show a wider gap, with the ANC at approximately 32% and the DA at 26%,” he said.

“Although the exact figures vary, the underlying trend is significant: the ANC’s support is under pressure, and the DA is gradually narrowing the gap. To put this in perspective, the ANC’s support has fallen from nearly 70% in 2004 to approximately 40% in the 2024 election.”

Neethling said the decline in the ANC’s electoral support represented a significant shift in South African politics and the erosion of its historical dominance.

However, he said the political picture varied between metropolitan municipalities.

“The DA’s strongest position is in Cape Town, while Tshwane and Johannesburg also offer the possibility of the party emerging as the largest force. Ekurhuleni and Nelson Mandela Bay are likely to be more contested political battlegrounds, while, according to available polls, the MK Party holds a strong position in eThekwini,” he said.

Neethling said the DA’s reported lead in Mangaung should be treated with caution, arguing that a Constitutional Court ruling concerning the ANC’s proportional candidate list could influence the party’s local organisation and mobilisation efforts.

He cautioned that a decline in ANC support would not automatically translate into the DA becoming the largest party in every municipality.

“Instead, it creates space for a more fragmented political landscape, in which smaller parties and new political actors gain greater bargaining power. Furthermore, a distinction must be drawn between securing the largest share of the vote and the ability to form and control a municipal government,” he said.

“In instances where no party achieves an absolute majority, the choice of coalition partners, the negotiation of policy priorities, and the capacity to establish a stable administration will be decisive,” Neethling added.