‘El Niño is a distraction’: Why Europe’s deadly heatwave isn’t down to a natural weather phenomenon

Western Europe continues to swelter under its third heatwave of the year, as blistering temperatures show no sign of falling until the weekend.On Monday (22 June) France placed more than half of its 96 mainland departments under red alert, urging citizens to exercise “absolute vigilance” and stay out of the direct sun during the hot spell.It comes as huge swathes of the country grapple with temperatures exceeding 40℃ as well as a string of tropical nights – where the temperature never falls below 20℃ during a 24-hour period.Two children, aged four and two, were found dead in their family’s car in south-eastern France on Monday, with officials confirming that intense heat is the “leading line of inquiry”. The tragic deaths follow those of three elderly people who died near Bordeaux over the weekend due to health problems caused by extreme temperatures.Across the channel, the UK Met Office has issued a red extreme heat warning for today and tomorrow across parts of central and southern England, as well as Wales. Temperatures are expected to rise to 39℃ in the coming days, while overnight temperatures will also be “very high”.“Humidity is also a factor, making this heatwave even more impactful with heat stress a danger to all,” the Met Office says.In Germany, rising temperatures have increased the chances of forest fires, particularly in the south and east of the country. Regions including Bonn, Stuttgart and Frankfurt are bracing for temperatures nearing 40℃ over the weekend.Is El Niño behind Europe’s sizzling heatwave?Earlier this month, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared that El Niño conditions are officially underway in the tropical Pacific, following months of monitoring.Many forecasters warn that El Niño conditions could be the strongest event in decades, leading to media coverage of a so-called ‘Super El Niño’. However, this isn’t an official scientific category and isn’t used by NOAA.El Niño (Spanish for ‘the boy) is a naturally occurring phenomenon that happens when sea temperatures in the Eastern Pacific Ocean become unusually warm. This can push up global temperatures, paving the way for more extreme weather.Previous El Niño events, such as the one during May 2023 through March 2024, contributed towards record-breaking heat which fuelled a series of deadly heatwaves, wildfires and floods across the globe.Experts at the IHE Delft Institute for Water Education in the Netherlands have warned that El Niño can have a series of knock-on effects beyond hotter temperatures, including drought, food insecurity and even electricity shortages. Many media outlets are pinning the current heatwave in Europe on El Niño, but Ioanna Vergini, founder of global weather forecasting platform WYF24, tells Euronews Earth that this is “meteorologically off”.“The Pacific isn't in a strong El Niño state now, and even when it is, its direct influence on European summer heat is weak and poorly constrained,” she explains.“This is a classic jet-stream blocking event acting on a record-warm background. The dome is the mechanism; long-term warming is the amplifier; El Niño is a distraction.”When and where does El Niño’s impact hit?While El Niño’s impact can be severe, disruption is mainly felt in the tropics. Flooding is a common risk in South America, such as in northern Peru, and can reach parts of East Africa, Central Asia and the southern US.Droughts and wildfire risks rise during El Niño, particularly across much of Australia, northern parts of South America and in Asian countries like Indonesia. In Europe and the UK, El Niño’s impacts are much more indirect – but can still increase the likelihood of more unsettled conditions later in the year – such as a milder, wetter and windier weather during autumn and early winter.“El Niño can also be associated with colder and calmer late winter periods in the UK,” says the British Met Office. “However, any potential impacts will be assessed in more detail later in the year as forecasts evolve.”Climate experts predict that at the end of this year, and into 2027, the world will likely see very high temperatures – but this isn’t contributing to the intense heat already gripping much of Western Europe.El Niño ‘comes and goes’ – climate change doesn’tMost El Niño events have temporarily increased global average temperatures by around 0.2℃.This is not as significant as human-made climate change, which has pushed the global surface temperature up by approximately 1.3 - 1.5℃ compared to pre-industrial levels.El Niño’s impacts are therefore compounded by an already warming world. It’s why 2025 was the third warmest year on record – hotter than the El Niño year of 2016 – despite the naturally forming cool drag of a La Niña event.La Niña (Spanish for the girl) typically cools global temperatures by strengthening trade winds and pulling colder water from the ocean depths to the surface across the equatorial Pacific. La Niña occurs irregularly too, but tends to last longer than El Niño."El Niño is a natural phenomenon," climate scientist Friederike Otto from Imperial College London said back in May, before El Niño conditions had officially started. "It comes and goes."Europe is warming more than twice as fast as the global average, with temperatures up by around 2.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels. Parts of Europe extend into the Arctic, the fastest-warming region on Earth, where temperatures are rising at three-to-four times the global rate. As snow and ice melt, less sunlight is reflected by the Earth's surface, while the darker surfaces that are exposed absorb more heat, amplifying the melting.Emissions controls have helped Europe to reduce air pollution, which has brought wide-reaching benefits for human health and the environment. But it has also reduced the low-level clouds produced by aerosols, which acted as a cooling barrier.