El Niño puts South Africa’s struggling water systems under pressure ahead of summer

South Africa could face a difficult summer as the risk of hotter temperatures and below-normal rainfall threatens to place additional pressure on water systems already weakened by infrastructure failures, water losses and unreliable municipal supplies.

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) expects below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures across much of the country from October to December 2026, raising concerns about whether municipalities have the infrastructure, technical capacity and contingency plans needed to manage worsening conditions.

The warning comes as communities continue to experience unreliable water supplies and prolonged outages, highlighting the challenge of preparing for potentially drier conditions while existing water-service failures remain unresolved.

Dr Lester Goldman, chief executive of the Water Institute of Southern Africa (WISA), said the approaching summer rainfall season should prompt an urgent assessment of the country’s preparedness.

“Climate forecasts are valuable, but their real impact depends on how effectively we use them,” Goldman said.

“We need professionals who can interpret changing conditions, assess local risks and translate reliable information into decisions before a potential water crisis becomes an emergency.”

Although El Niño does not guarantee drought in every region, Goldman said the outlook reinforced the need for authorities to prepare for different scenarios, particularly where water systems were already under strain.

The challenge extends beyond the availability of water resources to whether municipalities can deliver safe, reliable supplies to households and businesses.

The National Water Action Plan identifies widespread weaknesses in municipal water services, including deteriorating infrastructure, water losses and inadequate maintenance.

According to the plan, 74% of Water Services Authorities scored poor or critical in drinking-water and/or wastewater-system assessments. Average non-revenue water stood at 47%, compared with a benchmark of 25%.

Non-revenue water refers to water that does not generate revenue for a water service provider, including losses through leaks and other inefficiencies.

The plan also identifies 2 688 unserved communities where formal potable-water infrastructure is absent or dysfunctional, or where residents lack access to basic services.

The Department of Water and Sanitation’s 2023 Blue Drop assessment, cited by WISA, found that 277 of 958 assessed water supply systems were in a critical state of performance.

These figures highlight the scale of existing weaknesses as authorities prepare for a summer in which hotter temperatures and below-normal rainfall could add pressure to water supplies.

Goldman said climate resilience required more than forecasts or contingency plans.

“It requires people with the technical knowledge and professional judgement to assess risks, work across disciplines and help decision-makers understand what those risks mean in practice,” he said.

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana identified El Niño as a risk to the domestic economy in his 2026 Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement, warning that it could affect production costs and output.

He said poor infrastructure maintenance, water losses and weak municipal capacity had undermined service delivery.

“Poorly maintained infrastructure, high water losses and weak municipal capacity have undermined service delivery,” Godongwana said.

“Too many households and businesses still face unreliable water supply.”

Godongwana said the National Water Action Plan aimed to address infrastructure and institutional failures through improved operational performance, stronger governance and technical capacity, reduced water losses and reforms to water-infrastructure financing.

The consequences of water-service failures are already affecting communities.

The South African Human Rights Commission (SAHRC) and the Claude Leon Chair in Earth Justice and Stewardship at the University of the Witwatersrand recently launched the Water Rights Tracker, a five-year research project assessing progress towards realising the right to water across all 144 Water Services Authorities.

The launch followed reports that more than 400 people had suffered gastrointestinal illness following exposure to contaminated water in the Bronkhorstspruit area.

SAHRC commissioner Dr Henk Boshoff said the incident demonstrated the consequences of failures in water quality.

“The water crisis is impacting lives and livelihoods. We cannot afford to bury our heads in the sand, but we must tackle the water crisis head-on,” Boshoff said.

Prof Tracy-Lynn Field, Chair in Earth Justice and Stewardship, said the tracker would help identify failures and strengthen accountability.

“Access to sufficient water is not a privilege or a political promise. It is a constitutional right,” Field said.

“The Water Rights Tracker offers a means of measuring whether that right is being realised, identifying where failures are occurring and ensuring that those responsible for delivering water services can be held to account.”

Goldman said South Africa needed to turn climate warnings into practical measures before conditions worsened.

“South Africa cannot control the climate, but it can strengthen its ability to respond. Investing in professional competence, evidence-based planning and collaboration now can help us manage water risks more effectively, both during this coming season and in the years ahead,” he said.