Fantasy football Week 9 QB preview: Caleb Williams keeps winning, but his Fantasy points aren't keeping pace

Week 1 feels like it was eons ago, but do you remember the start Caleb Williams had? He scored 41.3 Fantasy points in CBS leagues and was the top player in Fantasy Football. There was some irritation at the fact that he did it all himself, hurting Colston Loveland and Luther Burden, but the general consensus was that Williams had arrived as an elite QB in Fantasy Football. Then he pulled his hamstring in Week 2 and didn't play again until Week 6. In the three games since, Williams has played the best football of his career; the Bears are 3-0 with wins over both of last year's Super Bowl participants. Everything is awesome again, right? Well, it has been for Bears fans, not so much for Williams' Fantasy managers. 

In his last three games, Williams has averaged 20.2 Fantasy points per game, which would be tied with Matthew Stafford for QB15 on the season. The Fantasy "problem" is a lack of rushing and a lack of touchdowns. He has 22 yards rushing and four total touchdowns in those three games. For the season, the Bears rank 26th in the NFL with eight passing TDs and second in the league with 17 rushing touchdowns. That makes some sense, considering the Bears have a 62.3% red-zone rush rate, the third-highest mark in the league.

This all leads to the question of what to do with Williams in Week 9. The Bears face a Tampa Bay defense that suddenly looks imposing. They have a top-five defense in points and yards allowed, and a top-10 defense against both the run and the pass. This is no easy matchup. Which is another reason why, in my early Week 9 projections, Williams projects as QB16. Certainly not a must-start QB, but also projected to outscore every QB available on the waiver wire. If you are carrying two good QBs, there is a good chance I would sit Williams this week. But you should not go looking to the waiver wire to replace him.

Let's get to the rest of the preview:

39 -- Tyler Shough is averaging 39 pass attempts per game. That type of volume keeps him in the top 12 conversation.

14.8 -- The Broncos are giving up 14.8 FPPG to QBs not named Patrick Mahomes.

14 -- Baker Mayfield has thrown 14 passes in his last two games combined.

14.8% -- Malik Willis has a 14.8% off-target rate, the worst mark amongst qualified starters.

23 -- Jordan Love has had 23 passes dropped this season. No one else has more than 15.

5.4 -- Bo Nix is averaging 5.4 air yards per pass attempt, the lowest mark in the league.

59 -- Jacoby Brissett has 59 red zone pass attempts this year. No other QBs have more than 48. Gardner Minshew could have a lot of touchdown opportunities in the future.

My full set of Week 9 Fantasy football projections for every position is here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 9. Projected stats for all starting quarterbacks are available and will be updated throughout the week as I make changes.

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