Fitch Expects 4.1% Growth in Morocco in 2026 Despite Some U.S.-Iran Spillover

Morocco’s GDP growth will continue to exceed 4.0% in both 2026 and 2027, despite negative spillovers from the US-Iran conflict, according to the forecast of Fitch Solutions, which provides credit, economic, financial data, research and analytics used by financial institutions, corporations and governments.

“We forecast growth of 4.1% each year, broadly in line with consensus. Although this marks a moderate slowdown from 4.6% in 2025, it would still be comfortably above Morocco’s 10 year average of 2.6%”, said the experts of Fitch.

Growth in Morocco will be driven primarily by investment and household consumption, alongside a smaller drag from net exports, they added, noting that agricultural value added will increase sharply in 2026, helping to offset potential supply chain disruptions and cost pressures linked to the US–Iran conflict in other sectors.

According to Fitch Solutions, investment growth will slow from the exceptionally strong rates seen in 2024–2025 but, at around 7%, will remain comfortably above the 10 year average of 6.2% due to continued spending on transport and logistics infrastructure ahead of the 2030 World Cup.

Agricultural value added (which represented 8.1% of GDP in 2025) is expected to increase sharply in 2026 as favourable weather drove more than 120% y o y growth in wheat and barley output. Cereals typically account for 40-55% of total agricultural tonnage. This rebound will help offset potential supply chain disruptions and cost pressures linked to the US–Iran conflict in other sectors.