From Oman to Tanzania: How the Iran war is redrawing India’s trade map

The conflict in West Asia is reshaping India’s trade flows in unexpected ways, triggering a dramatic reordering of both import sources and export destinations.The most striking shift has been Oman’s emergence as a key trade partner. Ranked only 30th among India’s import sources in April-May 2025, the Gulf nation has jumped to 10th place in the first two months of the current financial year. Imports from Oman surged 3.8 times to $3.4 billion, largely driven by energy shipments.The changes extend far beyond the Gulf. The UAE slipped to fourth place among India’s import partners, while Russia reclaimed the second spot, followed by the US. India’s search for alternative LPG supplies helped lift imports from the US, while purchases from Brazil rose 2.8 times to $2.7 billion. Imports from Peru climbed 3.7 times to more than $2 billion, making it India’s 20th-largest import source compared with 35th a year earlier.131763352Export patterns have also undergone a significant shift. Singapore overtook China and the Netherlands to become India’s third-largest export destination during April-May, trailing second-ranked UAE by just $180 million. Tanzania emerged as the eighth-largest destination for Indian exports, up from 25th place a year ago, while South Africa climbed to 10th.According to Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal, exports of oil products and gems and jewellery have driven Tanzania’s rise, with shipments increasing from $800 million in April-May last year to $2.2 billion this year. Exports to Sri Lanka nearly tripled to $1.8 billion, lifting the island nation to 12th place among India’s export markets.Singapore’s rise has been fuelled largely by a 2.2-fold increase in imports of Indian petroleum products, with exports touching $5.1 billion. The island nation has been among the economies most affected by disruptions caused by the conflict in West Asia, helping it edge past China despite a more than 25% increase in Indian exports to the world's second-largest economy.The disruption of shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital gateway to the Persian Gulf, has elevated Oman’s strategic importance. Agrawal said Oman, with which India recently operationalised a free trade agreement, has opened the ports of Sohar, Salalah and Duqm for the transit of Indian goods to destinations across the region, including the UAE.These arrangements have helped India restore exports to West Asia to nearly last year's levels. Imports from the region, however, remain around 18% lower due to ongoing disruptions in energy supplies.