India's monsoon advances under the shadow of El Niño
India's crucial summer monsoon is advancing across the country, bringing relief from intense heat, but forecasters are watching warily as a developing El Niño weather pattern threatens to disrupt the season.
The southwest monsoon began over the southern state of Kerala on 4 June, a few days later than its normal onset date. It has since pushed northward, with conditions favourable for further advance into parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, the Delhi region, Punjab and Rajasthan.
The monsoon delivers the bulk of India's annual rainfall and is critical to agriculture, water supplies and the wider economy in a country where hundreds of millions of people depend on farming.
But meteorologists have flagged risks ahead. Forecasters have pointed to a high probability of El Niño developing during the middle of the year and persisting into next, a pattern historically associated with weaker monsoon rains and the potential for drought in parts of the subcontinent.
The stakes are significant. A poor monsoon can hit crop yields, push up food prices and strain rural incomes, while excessive or erratic rain can trigger deadly floods. Authorities and farmers alike will be watching the season's progress closely in the weeks ahead.
