Is Drew Mestemaker really QB1? A troubling trend and lessons from Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence

Caleb Williams. Trevor Lawrence. Drew Mestemaker.

Two former No. 1 overall picks and probably the hottest name in the 2027 NFL Draft all share a troubling distinction: Over the last decade-plus, only Williams and Lawrence had higher turnover-worthy-play rates under pressure in their final college seasons than Mestemaker has this year.

But there's a catch. For Williams and Lawrence, those numbers were one-year blips after considerably better performances earlier in their college careers. For Mestemaker, the mistakes have followed him from North Texas to Oklahoma State … and they've gotten worse.

None of that means Mestemaker can't be the first quarterback selected in the 2027 NFL Draft. He's put himself squarely in the QB1 conversation, and for good reason. I have Miami's Darian Mensah just ahead of him, but there's a whole lot to like about Mestemaker's game. 

NFL teams will also have to answer an important question before investing a high first-round pick in him: What happens when defenses take away the easy throws and force him to make decisions under pressure?

Why Mestemaker belongs in the QB1 conversation

There's plenty to like about the Oklahoma State quarterback, who spent last season at North Texas. For starters, Mestemaker looks the part. He has a strong arm, throws with anticipation and will get through his reads. He's comfortable attacking all three levels, manipulates defenders with his eyes and has the patience to stand in the pocket, reset his feet and deliver fastballs into tight windows.

Just watched Drew Mestemaker's throws vs. UCF, and he just keeps getting better. BTW, if Arch Manning had Mestemaker's tape, he'd be the consensus QB1, probably by a wide margin.

Wrote about Mestemaker after he beat Oregon and he's playing better now. https://t.co/MPhvkXpD60

— ryan wilson (@ryanwilsonCBS) October 11, 2026

Just watched Drew Mestemaker's throws vs. UCF, and he just keeps getting better. BTW, if Arch Manning had Mestemaker's tape, he'd be the consensus QB1, probably by a wide margin.

Wrote about Mestemaker after he beat Oregon and he's playing better now. https://t.co/MPhvkXpD60

He has plenty of NFL-caliber throws on tape, especially on intermediate routes where he has to throw receivers open. It's easy to see why he's become a popular QB1 choice. But there are also stretches where he tries to do too much, and that's where the evaluation gets more complicated.

The concern isn't just this season

Through Week 9 of 2026, Mestemaker has seven turnover-worthy plays on 54 dropbacks when he was pressured, according to PFF. That's a 13.0% rate, more than double the 5.8% median for the first-round quarterbacks in our historical comparison.

(A turnover-worthy play isn't just an interception. It can be a dangerous throw that a defender drops or another mistake that puts the football at risk. And while the number itself doesn't tell us everything, it helps identify decisions that might otherwise get lost in the box score.)

Williams and Lawrence were the only first-rounders we looked at with higher rates in their final college seasons, but both had been considerably better the previous year. Williams went from 0.9% in 2022 to 15.3% in 2023, while Lawrence jumped from 1.6% in 2019 to 13.2% in 2020.

Turnover-worthy play percentage and yards per attempt when pressured

QB

Season

TWP %

YPA

Caleb Williams

2023

15.3%

6.8

Trevor Lawrence

2020

13.2%

8.3

Drew Mestemaker

2026*

13.0%

4.5

Jordan Love

2019

10.9%

2.8

Sam Darnold

2017

10.5%

11.0

Josh Allen

2017

8.9%

6.7

Patrick Mahomes

2016

8.5%

9.4

* 2026 season through Week 9. Source: PFF

Look at Williams and Lawrence now. Both had bumpy starts to their NFL careers, and both are now two of the NFL's best quarterbacks. It's a pretty good reminder that A.) landing in the right situation is probably the most important factor in a young QB's development, and B.) troubling college numbers don't mean you're destined to fail at the next level.

Mestemaker's struggles have followed him from North Texas to Oklahoma State. His turnover-worthy-play rate was 8.3% under pressure in 2025 before climbing to 13% so far this season. Over that span, he's put the ball in harm's way 13 times in 126 such situations. That's a 10.3% rate, and it's something NFL evaluators will have to consider.

Of course, there's recent precedent for NFL teams looking past troubling numbers. I wrote last November about Ty Simpson's historically poor deep-ball accuracy, and we later learned just how much injuries had affected his play. The Rams still took him 13th overall in April, betting on everything else he did well.

Here's what makes it even more interesting: Mestemaker has gotten much better at avoiding sacks, but he's also making more dangerous throws. Last season, he was sacked on roughly 21% of plays when pressured. That number is down to 11% this year, but while he's taking fewer sacks, he's also averaging a full yard less per pass attempt in those situations (5.6 to 4.5).

The tape provides more clues. Mestemaker generally shows good footwork and accuracy when he has time, and he's capable of working beyond his first read. But there are also moments when he forces throws into coverage instead of taking the easier completion underneath, or when his accuracy suffers because he doesn't get his feet set.

These aren't all necessarily mistakes caused by pressure, but they point to a similar concern: knowing when to challenge a defense and when to take what it's giving you.

What Mahomes, Allen, Love and Darnold can tell us

The good news for Mestemaker is that other really talented quarterbacks have entered the NFL with concerns about their decision-making under pressure. A lot of them have gone on to be really good. Of course, not everyone develops the same way.

Let's start with Patrick Mahomes. In his final season at Texas Tech, he had an 8.5% turnover-worthy-play rate when pressured, but he also averaged 9.4 yards per attempt and generated 14 big-time throws. Mestemaker, by comparison, has averaged just 4.5 YPA this season, with three big-time throws against seven turnover-worthy plays.

Mahomes took risks, but he was also creating considerably more positive plays when things broke down. That's an important distinction because making dangerous throws is one thing; consistently making spectacular plays to offset those mistakes is another.

Jordan Love offers a different lesson. His final season at Utah State was a mess compared with his outstanding 2018 campaign. He went from 32 touchdowns and six interceptions to 20 touchdowns and 17 picks, and his turnover-worthy-play rate under pressure jumped from 3.4% to 10.9%.

Love averaged just 2.8 yards per attempt when pressured in 2019, even worse than Mestemaker this season. Green Bay still took him in the first round, betting on his physical talent and development. That patience paid off, a reminder that a concerning college season doesn't have to define a quarterback's NFL career.

Then there's Josh Allen, who happens to be Mestemaker's favorite quarterback. Allen inspired him to wear No. 17, and Mestemaker has talked about relating to Allen's unconventional football journey.

Allen's final college season wasn't nearly as productive as the one before. His passing yards fell from 3,203 to 1,812, his yards per attempt dropped from 8.6 to 6.7, and he completed just 56.3% of his passes. His turnover-worthy-play rate under pressure was 8.9%, yet Buffalo took him seventh overall because his physical tools were impossible to ignore.

Allen developed into JOSH ALLEN. While Mestemaker's best ball is likely in front of him too, it's unfair to expect anyone to make the leap Allen made once he arrived in the league.

Sam Darnold provides another example. His turnover-worthy-play rate under pressure was 10.5% in his final season at USC, but he also averaged 11.0 yards per attempt in those situations. Like Mahomes, he took chances, but he also made big plays when things broke down.

The point isn't that Mestemaker will become the next Mahomes, Allen, Love or Darnold. It's that quarterbacks can overcome weaknesses, but the risks have to be weighed against what they do well and what they're capable of becoming.

So where does that leave Mestemaker?

I still like Mestemaker a lot and there's every reason to believe he could be the first quarterback taken in either this draft or in 2028, should he decide to stay in school another year. But the mistakes under pressure are real, and they're going to be a part of his evaluation.

There's also time for him to get better, likely even a lot better. Remember, Mestemaker never started a varsity game at quarterback in high school; he was primarily a punter and safety before walking on at North Texas. He's already improved at avoiding sacks, and the next step is making smarter decisions when defenses disrupt his timing. 

Mestemaker has the talent to be the first quarterback selected whenever he enters the draft. But making NFL throws and making NFL decisions aren't the same thing. And how much he improves his decision-making under pressure could ultimately determine just how early he'll hear his name called.

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