Lincoln Riley flips script on hot-seat chatter as USC's upset over Ohio State puts Trojans back in CFP picture

Back against the wall and facing music reaching scream-metal decibels about his job security, Lincoln Riley delivered.

For only the sixth time in 21 tries at USC, the Trojans toppled a ranked opponent under Riley, and it was a big one Saturday night against second-ranked Ohio State.

USC's 30-18 victory pushes Riley's squad back in the College Football Playoff discussion as part of the group that controls their own destiny entering the season's final month — with an outside shot at a Big Ten Championship Game appearance, too.

Poetically, this was his middle finger to questions surrounding his future and failure to meet expectations in Los Angeles. The Trojans still have elite opportunities remaining against Indiana — a one-loss team that's leaking oil with quarterback issues — and unbeaten UCLA during rivalry weekend.

Riley was 1-6 all-time against AP top-six opponents coming in, that lone victory coming in the form of a 31-16 decision over the Buckeyes in just his second game as a head coach back at Oklahoma in 2017.

"If I didn't want to be at this place, I wouldn't have come here in the first place," Riley said this week before the biggest win of his USC tenure. "I've had plenty of opportunities to leave. This is where I want to be. This is the right place for me. I'm the right person to be here. And that's as honest and transparent as I can be with you guys.

"I love it here. I mean, like I told you guys a lot of times, there's not many people in college football history that gave up what I gave up to come here. I don't care if it's 15 years down the line; that never should be taken lightly. It's certainly not taken lightly by me. I came here because I believe in this place and none of that has changed whatsoever."

USC put together a solid plan defensively to combat Heisman frontrunner Jeremiah Smith, limiting him to 83 yards receiving and a touchdown on 10 catches. Ohio State freshman quarterback Luke Fahey, who was making his first career start in place of injured Julian Sayin, never found a rhythm in the passing game and was chased out of the pocket throughout.

Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava registered 222 yards through the air and a score, while running backs King Miller and Waymond Jordan combined for 126 yards and two touchdowns on the ground.

The loss for Ryan Day was only his sixth in 65 games against Big Ten competition with the Buckeyes.

USC's path to CFP berth, Big Ten Championship Game

Now 7-2 overall and 4-2 in conference play, the Trojans find themselves in a three-way tie for third in the conference standings after Week 9. With Indiana, Maryland and UCLA left, winning out gives USC three victories this season over ranked teams and puts the Trojans in prime position for an at-large CFP berth for the first time in program history.

To play in Indianapolis with a Big Ten title on the line, however, scenarios are a bit less clear:

USC wins out and ...

UCLA loses to Minnesota, Illinois or Michigan

Northwestern loses to Iowa, Ohio State, Minnesota or Illinois

Wisconsin loses to Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue or Minnesota

Oregon loses to Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State or Washington

Ohio State loses to Northwestern, Nebraska or Michigan  

Nebraska loses to Washington, Illinois, Rutgers, Ohio State or Iowa

Illinois loses to Nebraska, UCLA, Iowa or Northwestern (since it owns a common opponent win over Oregon)

Iowa loses to Northwestern, Purdue, Illinois or Nebraska  (since it owns a common opponent win over Wisconsin)

Essentially, the best USC can finish is 7-2 in Big Ten play and needs tiebreakers over five different teams — UCLA, Ohio State, Indiana, Northwestern and Nebraska — should those finish with the same record.

Big Ten standings for teams in the mix

UCLA

5-0

8-0

Indiana

5-1

8-1

USC

4-2

7-2

Northwestern

3-2

6-2

Iowa

3-2

6-2

Minnesota

3-2

5-3

Wisconsin*

3-2

5-3

Illinois

3-2

5-3

Oregon*

3-2

5-3

Nebraska

2-2

5-2

*Teams that currently hold tiebreakers due to head-to-head wins

Simplifying the math, if USC wins out, UCLA's only loss comes to the Trojans and Riley's squad owns tiebreakers over any other remaining two-loss conference teams; they're in.

Riley's now 42-20 overall at USC and led the Trojans to an 11-win season in 2022 before the program entered the Big Ten. A potential playoff appearance, considering hard-to-stomach losses this fall against Oregon and Wisconsin, would make this campaign a raging success regardless of how the Big Ten standings shake out.

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