Miami vs. Notre Dame prediction, pick, odds, spread: Hurricanes, Irish meet with CFP stakes on line

It's been 38 years since Lou Holtz got the win that defined his career at Notre Dame. On Saturday, Marcus Freeman could do the same against the same program.

No. 11 Notre Dame and No. 1 Miami meet in South Bend with playoff implications on the line in what is the highest-ranked matchup between the programs (according to the AP poll) since that classic Catholics vs. Convicts showdown in 1988. The Irish won the national championship that season, its most recent title.

The College Football Playoff selection committee sees a different matchup. Miami sits atop the first CFP rankings, but slotted Notre Dame at No. 11, seven spots lower than the AP voters. Notre Dame is the last team in the CFP field, and a loss against Miami could knock the Irish out of playoff contention entirely.

"They don't have that signature win right now," CFP committee chair Hunter Yurachek said Tuesday night on ESPN. "They've got a great opportunity in front of them at home versus Miami to get that signature win that I think they need to move up in the rankings."

Don't forget, we've been here before. Miami defeated Notre Dame 27-24 in last season's season opener. The Irish remained above Miami in five CFP rankings, but the committee flipped the two in the final week, placing Miami over Notre Dame in the CFP.

Miami vs. Notre Dame: Need to know

Darian Mensah vs. a defense without its leader: Darian Mensah leads the FBS in completion percentage (80.7%) and pass efficiency (202.7) and is tied for the national lead with 25 touchdown passes against one interception. Notre Dame takes him on without linebacker Drayk Bowen, its leading tackler (45) and the green-dot helmet that relays defensive calls. He was ruled out with an ankle injury suffered against Navy. 

Malachi Toney's absence: Miami will be without superstar receiver Malachi Toney, who suffered an ankle injury in practice Wednesday and will undergo surgery in hopes of returning for the CFP. This game certainly takes on a different context. The sophomore ranks in the top three nationally in receptions (73), receiving yards per game (128.4) and receiving touchdowns (13), the last of which ties Miami's single-season school record. Cooper Barkate is the second-best receiver on the roster, but he averages 46.5 yards per game, compared to Toney's 128.4.

CJ Carr's problem: Carr has been magnificent most of his career, but the splits are wild. He's thrown 18 touchdowns and one interception this season, and he is 15-0 as a starter against unranked teams. Against AP-ranked opponents, he is 2-3, completing 60.9% of his passes at 6.6 yards per attempt with six touchdowns and five interceptions. With few opportunities to impress the CFP committee, he needs to step up against the top-ranked Hurricanes. Unranked Boston College, SMU and Syracuse are the only teams remaining on the schedule.

Notre Dame's invincibility: Notre Dame is 10-1 at home against Miami, and the home team has won the last eight on-campus meetings. Miami's only win at Notre Dame Stadium came in 1984. On the other side, the Hurricanes are 18-3 on the road as the AP No. 1, with all three losses at ranked teams, including the 1988 game against the Irish. Miami hasn't defeated an AP top-5 team on the road since 2005.

Penalties and the red zone: Notre Dame is the most disciplined team in the FBS, averaging only 28.9 penalty yards per game. Miami ranks 82nd (58.8). The Irish defense, however, ranks 108th in red-zone defense, allowing points on 88.9% of possessions, and Miami scores on 92.9% of its own.

Where to watch Miami vs. Notre Dame live

Date: Saturday, Nov. 7 | Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Notre Dame Stadium -- South Bend, Indiana
TV: NBC | Live stream: Fubo (try free)

Miami vs. Notre Dame prediction, picks

Notre Dame opened as a 4.5-point favorite and is now laying 5.5, with the total at 57.5. History sides with the Irish. Now that Malachi Toney is out, siding with the Irish becomes an easy play. Notre Dame will play the nation's most efficient quarterback either way, but how different does he look without his top option? Meanwhile, Notre Dame's red-zone defense has struggled against far lesser offenses, so will Toney's absence actually matter? Miami is 5-3 against the spread this season. Notre Dame is 4-4. The Irish can win this game, but covering by five points will still be difficult. Pick: Miami +5.5

SportsLine's proven computer model has simulated every Week 10 college football game 10,000 times. Visit SportsLine now to see the picks, all from the model that's 80-77 on top-rated CFB picks this season.

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