NFL Week 9 expert picks, best bets: Bears beat down Bucs, Saints get on track with a win

Week 8 was magical for "Dajani Dimes." We went 11-3 against the spread, and 10-4 straight up. Funny enough, two of my three ATS losses came in my top five best bets. Great. 

We knew the Detroit Lions would hand the Minnesota Vikings their first loss of the season, and that the Jacksonville Jaguars and Washington Commanders would take care of business in their respective matchups. Where we miscalculated was in taking the Cincinnati Bengals to blow out the Tennessee Titans, and the Atlanta Falcons to upset the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In my defense, I didn't know Cam Ward was going to register one of the best quarterback performances of the week, or that the Falcons and Bucs would be playing in a tornado-hurricane. Yeah, weather forecasts are important when it comes to gambling, but the Falcons' No. 4 run defense allowed Bucky Irving and Kenneth Gainwell to rush for 310 yards. I did not expect that.

Here's a look at what I'm thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart. 

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Top five picks ATS record: 19-20-1
Overall ATS record: 62-57-2
Straight-up record: 72-48-1

Denver Broncos (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)

Another week, another magical Bo Nix comeback. And you clowns wanted him benched! The Denver Broncos offense scored 15 unanswered points vs. the Kansas City Chiefs in the fourth quarter, and then the defense pulled off a goal-line stand against Patrick Mahomes to seal the deal. Amazing. Nix leads the NFL since 2000 with 9.1 yards per attempt when down by one score in the fourth quarter. He has 15 game-winning drives to his name, which is one shy of the most in a three-season span in NFL history. Nix hasn't even played three full seasons.

This week, the Broncos take on a Carolina Panthers team that just fired their defensive coordinator and has some serious issues on the offensive line. Injuries are beginning to mount up front, and Bryce Young has been sacked 11 times over the last two games. Carolina is now tied for the second-most sacks allowed with 23, and up against an aggressive defense that ranks top five in sacks with 23. 

You can question the Broncos offense all you want, but the Panthers defense has a weird issue with giving up a million points at home. They allowed 59 points to the Chicago Bears in Week 1, 26 points to the Detroit Lions in Week 4, and then 43 points to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 7. That's 42.7 points allowed per game at home. 

The pick: Broncos -2.5
Projected score: Broncos 24-20

Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints (-3)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)

This feels like a good week to back the 2-5 New Orleans Saints. They are coming off their bye, playing their first game at home in almost a month, and could be returning a few notable players such as offensive tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. and offensive guard Cesar Ruiz. Plus, rookie wide receiver Jordyn Tyson could make his NFL debut as well. As for the Cleveland Browns, they were absolutely dominated by the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, 27-6, and are now playing their third straight road game. Quarterback Deshaun Watson is also in concussion protocol, meaning it could be Shedeur Sanders time in Cleveland. Given how Watson has played for the majority of this season, I don't know if fans are necessarily rooting for that.  

The pick: Saints -3
Projected score: Saints 23-17

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-8.5)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

Sam Darnold is going to miss the Seattle Seahawks' Week 9 matchup against the Arizona Cardinals due to a quad injury, but some people actually think that's a good thing for Seattle. Drew Lock gets the start under center, and his last start actually came against Arizona in Week 2! In a 31-7 beatdown of the Cardinals, Lock completed 19 of 26 passes for 235 yards and three touchdowns. The Seahawks out-gained the Cardinals, 381 yards to 151 yards, while Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught nine passes for 155 yards and three touchdowns. 

The Cardinals are also debuting a different quarterback this week in Gardner Minshew, who came off the bench last week and threw three touchdowns in an incredible comeback against the Dallas Cowboys. It's possible "Minshew Mania" continues to roll on, but I think the Seahawks as a whole are very upset with how that Monday night matchup against Chicago went. This defense is going to be flying around and the 12s are going to be loud.

The pick: Seahawks -8.5
Projected score: Seahawks 24-13

Seahawks QB comparison this season

Completion percentage

60%

73%

Yards per attempt

7.0

8.8

TD-INT

10-9

4-0

Passer rating

79.5

127.3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears  (-6)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

I started falling in love with the Bears when Caleb Williams came back from his hamstring injury with his hair/arm on fire. He's actually the first Bears quarterback to lead his team to 30+ points with zero turnovers in three straight games, and has clearly fixed his accuracy issues. D'Andre Swift leads the NFL with 10 rushing touchdowns, Ben Johnson is scheming up receivers open downfield, and now the defense has big, bad Jeffery Simmons holding down the middle.

As for the Buccaneers, I maintain you can't take anything away from that ridiculous game that was played in a hurricane last week. As you've heard by now, Baker Mayfield didn't even need to complete a pass to beat the Falcons. That means he's thrown for just 64 yards combined in the last two games. He's going to have to rack up a lot more passing yards if he wants to keep up with the Bears on "Sunday Night Football!" 

Speaking of "Sunday Night Football," Mayfield is 1-12 in prime time since 2021 -- which ranks worst in the NFL. I'm just not a believer in the Bucs right now, but this is a great opportunity for them to prove me wrong.

The pick: Bears -6
Projected score: Bears 30-20

Buffalo Bills (-3) at Minnesota Vikings 

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

I actually picked the Vikings at +3.5 earlier in the week when their quarterback situation was in flux. Now that Kyler Murray has been ruled out, the line has moved in favor of Minnesota! 

Murray averages 170.3 passing yards per game, which ranks 30th among 31 qualifying passers. I don't think it's a stretch to say Carson Wentz could open up the Vikings' passing attack. He threw three touchdowns in a 39-22 win over the Green Bay Packers in Week 1. That was actually Justin Jefferson's best game of the season, as he caught eight passes for 92 yards and two touchdowns. We know the Buffalo Bills have an offense that can outscore anyone, but this Vikings defense is still the best in the NFL. They lead the league in points per game (13.3), passing defense (154.9 yards allowed per game), red zone touchdown percentage (25%) and sacks per game (3.6). I'll take the points with Wentz under center, and I think an upset is possible. 

The pick: Vikings +3
Projected score: Vikings 24-23

Other Week 9 picks

Jaguars (-10) 28-13 over Ravens
Falcons (+3) 27-23 over Bengals
Chiefs 30-21 over Jets (+10)
Lions (-7) 35-20 over Dolphins
Cowboys (-5.5) 21-13 over Colts
Rams (-4.5) 27-17 over Commanders
Giants 20-17 over Eagles (+3.5)
49ers 24-20 over Raiders (+10)
Texans 20-16 over Chargers (+5.5)
Packers (+3) 27-24 over Patriots

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