NFL Week 9 picks, best bets: Bears continue to surge in primetime, Vikings lose second straight vs. Bills

We've been on the wrong side of a couple of bad beats throughout the first half of the regular season, and Week 8 was no exception. One of my five locks last week was the Patriots covering a 7.5-point spread over the Dolphins in Miami. For a large chunk of the second half, we were well on our way to cashing. Then, in the blink of an eye, we were suddenly sweating it out. 

After a 14-point third-quarter lead ballooned New England's lead to 11 and just four minutes remained in regulation, the Dolphins put together an eight-play, 84-yard touchdown drive to cut it within five. The gut punch was Malik Willis uncorking a 35-yard touchdown to Kevin Coleman Jr. to put them within the number. 

Kevin Coleman Jr. scores and we have a one-score game in Miami

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— NFL (@NFL) November 2, 2026

Kevin Coleman Jr. scores and we have a one-score game in Miami

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Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/4NjWuELca1

Even when all was thought to be lost, there was another opportunity for New England to extend the lead late after a botched onside kick by Miami. The Patriots reached the Dolphins' 38-yard line and faced a third-and-5. If they failed to convert, a meaningless field-goal attempt would've brought the lead to eight. Alas, Rhamondre Stevenson rushed for the necessary yardage to move the chains, Drake Maye knelt three times, and we came out losers. Pain. 

While that bat beat put in through a torture chamber, it was a good slate for us overall. I was 3-2 ATS with my locks of the week, 8-6 ATS overall, and 10-4 on the moneyline. I'll look to keep that momentum rolling and try to avoid any more bad beats as our attention now pivots to Week 9. As always, we begin with my five locks of the week. 

Note: Tennessee and Pittsburgh are on the bye in Week 9.

All lines via DraftKings; All times ET

2026 record

Locks of the Week ATS: 20-19-1

ATS: 53-65-3

ML: 75-45-1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. (NBC, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

The Bears look like bona fide Super Bowl contenders right now after rolling into Seattle and taking it to the defending champion Seahawks, with new defensive stud Jeffery Simmons showing out in his debut. 

They head back home for another primetime matchup against a Bucs team that didn't complete a pass in a 16-0 win over the Falcons. Over the past two games, Tampa Bay's passing attack has completed 7 of 14 attempts for 64 yards and one touchdown. That might be good enough to lock in two wins against NFC South rivals, but they'll need to chuck it to keep pace with Caleb Williams and keep this newly dominant defense honest. I don't believe they will be able to, which sets up Chicago to win its fourth straight game. 

The Bears are also 3-1 ATS at home this season.

Projected score: Bears 28, Buccaneers 20
The pick: Bears -6.5

Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

Weather was a factor, but I did find it noteworthy that the Patriots struggled to fend off the Dolphins in last week's win in Miami. Sure, a divisional game will always be pesky, but it is sticking in the back of my head as I look towards this matchup with Green Bay. 

I think Drake Maye, who leads the NFL in total yards and total touchdowns from Week 4 to Week 8, will have some trouble against this evolving Packers defense. Over the past five games, Green Bay is allowing just 14.6 points per game, which ranks third in the NFL. Meanwhile, Jordan Love is first in the NFL in passing yards entering Week 8 and first in completions of 20-plus air yards. He's also fourth in passing touchdowns, so New England's defense will have its hands full and is firmly on upset alert. 

Projected score: Packers 23, Patriots 21
The pick: Packers +3

Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders

Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

Jayden Daniels was pretty erratic with his throws on Sunday night, despite pulling out the 27-10 win over Philadelphia. For the game, he had an off-target rate of 17.2%, which was the third-highest in a single game in his career. That's alarming, particularly as Washington hosts a Rams team that is starting to gain some momentum. 

This season, L.A. is allowing 301.1 total yards per game, which ranks fifth in the league. If Daniels continues to misfire, this Rams defense has shown it can shut down an opponent. Meanwhile, the Commanders are 0-5 following a win since the start of last season and own a -9.0 points-per-game differential over that stretch. 

This could be a game where Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua feast, as Washington is currently giving up a 100.6 passer rating against this season, which ranks 25th in the league. I expect another prolific game from that duo as L.A. wins and covers. 

Projected score: Rams 27, Commanders 21
The pick: Rams -5.5

Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

At any moment, another star could be shipped out of Indy, which makes this line something we'll want to jump on with it below a touchdown. Yes, the Cowboys defense is horrid and just lost to Gardner Minshew and the Cardinals, but Indianapolis is lost right now. They were just blown out 42-7 by the Jaguars and are 2-13 over their past 15 games. This season, they are allowing 27.8 points per game, which is the third-highest in the NFL entering Week 9. That sets up this Cowboys offense to flirt with 30 points on the day. 

If they get there, it's hard to imagine Daniel Jones keeping pace, even when accounting for Dallas' defense. Jones has an NFL-worst 68.7 passer rating this season and appears to be barely clinging to his starting job. Since Week 9 of last year, Jones is 3-10 as the starter with 13 total touchdowns and 20 turnovers. Meanwhile, I think Indy will continue to limit Jonathan Taylor, with trade rumors still swirling around him. Last week, he played a season-low 62.3% of the offensive snaps, which was less than the 67.2% offensive snaps he logged the week prior in Week 7. If Taylor is less of a factor, that only lowers the ceiling of the Indy offense and clears a path for Dallas to cover. 

Projected score: Cowboys 30, Colts 17
The pick: Cowboys -6

Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings

Monday, 8:15 p.m. (ESPN, Stream: Fubo, try for free)

The Vikings suffered their first loss of the season in Week 8, falling to the Lions in a game that further emphasized the clunky start Kyler Murray has had running the offense. It's largely been masked by the stellar play of the defense, but Minnesota's offense is averaging just 279.4 total yards per game, which is the fourth-lowest in the league. Their 20 points per game average ranks sixth-lowest. 

That's unsustainable, especially against another high-octane offense like the Bills. Buffalo is averaging a league-best 33.3 points per game. While the Vikings defense will make it hard for them to maintain that average, they may not need to reach 30 to pull out the win on the road. Last week, Detroit scored 19 points in the winning effort, while going 1-for-3 in the red zone. Buffalo scores touchdowns on 70% of its red zone trips this season (fifth-highest). If they maintain that success and merely get north of 20 points, that could be too tall of a mountain for Murray and the Vikings offense to overcome. 

Projected score: Bills 24, Vikings 17
The pick: Bills -3.5

Rest of the bunch

Jaguars at Ravens (Thursday)
Projected score: Jaguars 28, Ravens 16
The pick: Jaguars -9.5

Bengals at Falcons (in Madrid)
Projected score: Bengals 27, Falcons 26
The pick: Falcons +3

Jets at Chiefs
Projected score: Chiefs 30, Jets 20
The pick: Chiefs -9.5

Lions at Dolphins
Projected score: Lions 34, Dolphins 23
The pick: Lions -7

Browns at Saints
Projected score: Saints 24, Browns 20
The pick: Saints -2.5

Giants at Eagles
Projected score: Giants 24, Eagles 17
The pick: Giants -3.5

Broncos at Panthers
Projected score: Broncos 21, Panthers 20
The pick: Panthers +3

Texans at Chargers
Projected score: Texans 24, Chargers 20
The pick: Chargers +4.5

Raiders at 49ers
Projected score: 49ers 27, Raiders 20
The pick: Raiders +10

Cardinals at Seahawks
Projected score: Seahawks 33, Cardinals 20
The pick: Seahawks -10.5

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