Predicting the full 14-team NFL playoff bracket entering Week 9: Bears make Super Bowl run

With the NFL season heading into its halfway point this week, I have some good news for everyone: All 32 teams are still mathematically alive to make the playoffs. And yes, that means even the Titans and Chargers could still make the postseason. I'm guessing they won't, but they could, and that's what matters here.

Heading into Week 9, this is when we finally start to see the contenders separate themselves from the pretenders. But who are the real contenders? Who's actually going to make the playoffs? Glad you asked. 

To help us figure that out, we had our analytics expert, Stephen Oh, simulate the rest of the 2026 season. There are 151 games left on the regular-season schedule, along with 13 playoff games, and Oh simulated all of them. Not only did he project all eight division winners and the 14 playoff teams, but he also crowned a Super Bowl champion. 

With that in mind, let's get to the projections. And just as a reminder, we're projecting what the NFL playoff field will look like at the end of the season. This is NOT the current playoff standings. 

Projected AFC playoff field

The AFC playoff projection underwent some massive changes this week. The Broncos turned the AFC West upside down with their win over the Chiefs. Thanks to that victory, our model now projects that Denver ends up winning the division title for the second straight year. 

Here's the projected AFC playoff field (with each team's current record): 
1. Bills (6-1) -- AFC East champion
2. Jaguars (5-2) -- AFC South champion
3. Broncos (6-2) -- AFC West champion
4. Bengals (5-2) -- AFC North champion
5. Chiefs (5-2)
6. Steelers (6-2)
7. Patriots (5-3)
JUST MISSED: Texans (2-5), Browns (5-3)

If the Broncos win the AFC West, the Chiefs will enter the playoffs as a wild-card team, which has never happened in Patrick Mahomes' career. Since he took over the starting job in 2018, the Chiefs have made the playoffs a total of seven times, and all of those came after a season where Kansas City won the division. The Chiefs have been so good with Mahomes that they've NEVER played a road game in the wild card round with him at quarterback, but we could see that happen this year.

Projected NFC playoff field

For the third time this season, we have a new team projected to win the NFC North. The Bears have taken over the top spot after their dominating win over the Seahawks on Monday night. Over the past eight weeks, we've seen the Vikings and Lions both projected to win the division, but heading into Week 9, our computer likes Da' Bears. 

Here's the projected NFC playoff field (with each team's current record): 
1. 49ers (6-1) -- NFC West champion
2. Bears (6-2) -- NFC North champion
3. Giants (4-2-1) -- NFC East champion
4. Buccaneers (3-5) -- NFC South champion
5. Vikings (6-1)
6. Lions (5-2)
7. Seahawks (4-4) 
JUST MISSED: Packers (5-3), Rams (4-4)

For the first time in NFL history, we could have a situation where TWO teams win their division despite not being over .500. Right now, our projection has the Giants winning the NFC East with a record of 8-8-1 and the Buccaneers winning the NFC South at 8-9. The Bucs started the season 0-4, but our computer loves them after watching Tampa Bay destroy two division rivals -- the Panthers and Falcons -- in consecutive weeks. 

There have been seasons where two teams have gotten in the playoffs at .500 or worse, but it's always involved at least one wild card team. For instance, the Commanders won the NFC East with a 7-9 record in 2020 while the Bears got in as a wild card team with an 8-8 record. However, there has never been a situation where two divisional winners both finish .500 or worse. If that happens, the biggest losers will be the Packers and Rams, both being projected to miss the playoffs despite finishing above .500. 

Wild card round

AFC

(2) Jaguars 27-20 over (7) Patriots. The last time these two teams met in the postseason, the Jags lost a controversial game in the AFC Championship. This time around, the Jags get their revenge. Jacksonville beat the Patriots 35-6 back in Week 3, and although this game is much closer, the Jags still get the win. 

(3) Broncos 21-19 over (6) Steelers. The last time the Broncos won the Super Bowl back in 2015, they started their playoff run with a win over the Steelers, so this could start to feel like deja vu for fans in Denver. These two teams will actually face each other on Black Friday, so we'll get to see them battle in the regular season before a possible playoff game in January.  

(4) Bengals 26-25 over (5) Chiefs. If there's one quarterback who has had some major success against Patrick Mahomes, it's Joe Burrow. Not only did he lead the Bengals to a win in the 2021 AFC title game, but Burrow is 2-0 all-time against the Chiefs at home, and he continues that streak with another win here. 

NFC

(2) Bears 24-21 over (7) Seahawks. These two teams just met on Monday night with the Bears destroying the Seahawks on the road in Seattle. This time around, the Seahawks keep it closer, but they can't quite figure out how to stop Ben Johnson's offense. 

(6) Lions 29-23 over (3) Giants. The Lions have never won a road playoff game in the Super Bowl era (0-12), but they end that drought here with a win against an overmatched Giants team. 

(4) Buccaneers 21-17 over (5) Vikings. The Buccaneers make history in this game by becoming the first NFC team ever to overcome a 0-4 start to make the playoffs. The Bucs then use their strong rushing attack to run over Minnesota's defense. With the loss, the Vikings' 6-0 start goes to waste, and Minnesota is forced to spend another offseason looking for a quarterback. 

And now, we're down to our final eight teams. 

Divisional round

AFC

(1) Bills 34-24 over (4) Bengals. The Bills come out on fire after their bye week and knock off the Bengals in what would be the team's first playoff game at their new stadium. This would definitely be an interesting matchup, and that's because Joe Burrow is 2-1 all-time against Josh Allen. 

(2) Jaguars 21-19 over (3) Broncos. The Jaguars' first divisional playoff win ever came back in 1996 against the Broncos, and history repeats itself here with the Jaguars knocking off Denver again. This game ends up as a back-and-forth thriller that's decided by a Cam Little field goal late in the fourth quarter. 

NFC

(1) 49ers 28-27 over (6) Lions. Three years ago, the Lions blew a 24-7 lead against the 49ers in the NFC title game. They finally get their shot at revenge here, but they come up short. Brock Purdy out-duels Jared Goff and ends up leading the 49ers to their fifth NFC title game over the past eight seasons. 

(2) Bears 28-19 over (4) Buccaneers. These two teams are actually playing THIS WEEK on Sunday night in Chicago, so we'll be getting a possible preview of what a playoff game might look like. The Bucs' defense has been strong this season, but in our playoff game, it can't slow down Caleb Williams and the Bears offense. With a win here, the Bears advance to their first NFC title game since 2010. 

If you're scoring at home, we are now down to four teams: Two teams that have never won a Super Bowl (Bills and Jaguars) and two teams that haven't won a Super Bowl in over 30 years. The 49ers' last title came in 1994, while the Bears haven't won a Lombardi Trophy since 1985, when they won their first and only Super Bowl. 

Conference title games

AFC Championship

(1) Bills 28-24 over (2) Jaguars. Last year, the Jaguars' season ended with a painful playoff loss to the Bills, and unfortunately for Jacksonville, they lost to Buffalo for the second straight year. With Josh Allen aiming to get to his first Super Bowl, he takes over the game and leads the Bills to a tight win. 

NFC Championship

(2) Bears 26-24 over (1) 49ers. With two offensive gurus going at it in Kyle Shanahan and Ben Johnson, this game could come down to who plays better defense, and right now, the Bears have the advantage on that side of the ball. The Bears' acquisition of Jeffery Simmons ends up as the move that puts them over the top as Chicago's defense comes up with several big plays in a wild road win. These two storied franchises have only met twice ever in the NFC title game (1984, 1988), and the 49ers have won both times, but Chicago finally gets its revenge. 

Super Bowl LXI at SoFi Stadium

(1) Bills 27-26 over (1) Bears. If these two teams end up in the Super Bowl, it will definitely be a wild week in Los Angeles. Bills fans would show up with their folding tables, and Bears fans would Super Bowl shuffle from Chicago all the way to LA while wearing their Ditka mustaches to honor Da' Coach, who led the Bears to their only Super Bowl win back in 1985. Unfortunately for the Bears, they don't have that same 1985 defense to stop Josh Allen. The Bills quarterback wills his team to a win, and the city of Buffalo celebrates by having everyone jump through a flaming folding table. Joe Brady becomes just the third coach this century to lead his team to a Super Bowl win in his first year on the job. DJ Moore gets revenge on his old team by having a huge game. As for Allen, he finally gets the Super Bowl monkey off his back, and Bills fans end up holding a parade that runs all the way from Los Angeles to Buffalo.  

We've been doing a projection every week since the start of the season, and here's a look at the projected Super Bowl each week. 

Preseason prediction: Rams over Ravens

After Week 1: Seahawks over Ravens

After Week 2: Seahawks over Chiefs

After Week 3: Chiefs over Vikings 

After Week 4: Seahawks over Chiefs

After Week 5: 49ers over Chiefs

After Week 6: Chiefs over 49ers

After Week 7: Bills over Vikings

After Week 8: Bills over Bears

As you can see, this is the first time all season the Bears have been projected to make the Super Bowl. According to our model, the Bears have a 17.96% chance of winning the NFC, with the 49ers sitting right behind them at 16.99%. There are only two other teams higher than 10%: the Lions (15.92%) and Vikings (13.22%). 

As far as winning the Super Bowl, the computer says it's Bills or bust. Buffalo has a 15.5% chance of winning it all, which is a huge number when you consider that no other team is above 10%. 

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