Sahel Juntas Entrench Their Rule as Jihadist Violence Spirals

Across the Sahel, the military governments that seized power in a wave of coups are digging in for the long haul — even as the security crisis they promised to solve grows steadily worse.

Mali's transitional parliament has granted junta leader Assimi Goïta a five-year, renewable presidential term without requiring elections, clearing the way for him to rule until at least 2030. Burkina Faso took a similar path, extending the mandate of its military leader by five years. The promises of swift returns to civilian rule that once accompanied the coups have quietly evaporated.

The backdrop is a deepening catastrophe. UN agencies recorded thousands of security incidents and more than 9,000 deaths across the region in a single year, and the violence is becoming more sophisticated. Jihadist group JNIM has rapidly expanded its use of armed drones, from fewer than 10 recorded strikes in 2024 to around 80 in 2025, while militants have staged brazen assaults on airports and military installations, even near capital cities.

The geopolitics have been upended just as dramatically. Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have expelled French forces, withdrawn from the West African bloc ECOWAS and banded together in the Alliance of Sahel States, a mutual-defence pact that marks a fundamental realignment. Into the vacuum left by departing Western partners has stepped Russia, whose Africa Corps — the rebranded successor to the Wagner Group — has become the juntas' primary security partner.

For the region's civilians, the consequences are measured in displacement, atrocities and fear. The juntas came to power vowing to restore security; instead, the Sahel has become one of the deadliest theatres of jihadist violence on earth, and its people are paying the price.