Scotland's World Cup hopes at 0.07% - these are results they need

Published25 June 2026

In just over 48 hours, Scotland's chances of reaching the World Cup knockouts for the first time have dropped from 42% to just 0.07%.

They require four teams to finish third in their groups but have a worse record than them - and results elsewhere have not helped Steve Clarke's side's hopes.

Losing 3-0 to Brazil in their final group-stage game dealt a substantial blow to their chances as they only managed to pick up three points from the group stage, whereas four would likely have sent them through.

Worse is the impact of the extent of their defeat. It has left Scotland with a goal difference of -3, which makes it trickier for them to finish with a better record than many other third-placed sides.

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What has changed and how could Scotland still progress?

First, South Africa beat South Korea 1-0 to snatch one of the top two places in their group, meaning South Korea - who have a better goal difference than Scotland - dropped to third.

After that, Ecuador produced an unexpected 2-1 victory over Germany to finish third in their group with four points and seal a spot in the last 32.

Sweden then held Japan to a 1-1 draw, also qualifying from third place with four points.

Scotland were down to an 6.89% chance of qualification after that, according to Opta, which decreased to 5.26% after Paraguay played out a stalemate with Australia which suited both sides.

Uruguay losing to Spain was some rare good news but Iran's draw with Egypt leaves them with just a 0.07% chance of progressing.

Those results leave Scotland sitting 10th out of the 12 current third-placed sides and on the brink of missing out on a knockout spot.

If teams in the third-place standings finish level on points, the rankings are then decided by goal difference.

There are now only three groups left to be completed, and Scotland need numerous results to go in their favour.

They need Austria to beat Algeria by at least two goals, or for Algeria to win by four goals or more.

They also need Ghana to defeat Croatia by three goals or more and either DR Congo and Uzbekistan to draw, or for the latter to win by a maximum of three goals.

What results do Scotland need to qualify?

There are three groups left to play, and Scotland need four third-placed teams to have a worse record than them.

It means they need these scenarios to play out:

SATURDAY

Group L: Croatia to lose to Ghana by at least three goals.

SUNDAY:

Group K: DR Congo v Uzbekistan to be a draw.

Or Uzbekistan to win by no more than three goals.

Group J: Austria and Algeria are on three points and a draw would send both through.

Scotland need Algeria to lose by two or more goals, or Austria to be beaten by at least four goals.

Related topics

Scotland Sport

Scottish Football

Scotland Men's Football Team

FIFA World Cup 2026

Football

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