SQUAD STRENGTH: Boks’ superior depth could prove decisive in Nations Championship title race

With a number of leading teams missing some key players, the Springboks are ideally placed to mount a really strong bid for glory in the tournament.

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Springbok coach Rassie Erasmus went out of his way this week to praise his opposite number in Italy, Gonzalo Quesada, ahead of the Nations Championship clash between South Africa and the Azurri in Turin on Saturday, 7 November 2026.

Since taking the coaching reins in 2024, Quesada has guided Italy to landmark wins against Australia, Scotland and England while adopting an Erasmus-like approach towards depth-building across all the respective positions.

Italy’s depth will be put to the ultimate test this ­Saturday, when a depleted Azzurri outfit hosts a Bok team stacked with World Cup winners. Italy are missing 17 players at present, including regular captain Michele Lamaro and star centre pairing Tommaso Menoncello and Juan Ignacio Brex.

The Springboks’ injury list is just as long, with RG Snyman, Kwagga Smith, Eben Etzebeth, André Esterhuizen, Handré Pollard and Cheslin Kolbe among the high-profile absentees.

The key difference between South Africa and Italy – and perhaps every other Test side at present – is that the Springboks can still realistically expect to win all four of their matches in the next phase of the Nations Championship.

France’s long-term development project is well under way and may bear fruit in the coming seasons, but at this stage, as many as 15 players look set to miss next week’s clash against the Boks. Tight-five juggernauts Thibaud Flament and Emmanuel Meafou, as well as backline superstars such as Matthieu Jalibert and Thomas Ramos, are among those who have been ruled out.

Ireland don’t have the depth of South Africa or France and will be hard pressed to match the Springboks on 21 November without influential figures in Caelan Doris, Jack Conan and Jack Crowley.

Meanwhile, the All Blacks have travelled to the northern hemisphere without 10 players who were in the Greatest Rivalry series. Skipper Ardie Savea and flyhalf Ruben Love are the most notable absentees. The injury situation may have a bearing on the All Blacks’ performances against Scotland, Wales and England in the coming weeks, and ultimately where they finish in the southern conference standings.

At this stage, the Boks hold a slender lead over New Zealand by virtue of their superior points difference – and if South Africa maintain their position over the next three rounds, they will qualify for the Nations Championship final on 29 November.

Playing his cards close

Erasmus has made a mockery of all pre-tournament predictions by picking his strongest available combination for the clash against Italy. The Springbok match 23 includes 13 World Cup winners and boasts 1,043 Test caps.

Clearly, Erasmus wants to start the tour on a high-scoring note and increase the Boks’ lead over the All Blacks at the top of the southern conference. The first-choice side will be tasked with securing a bonus-point win and as many points as possible against Italy in Turin on Saturday.

There should be no risk of overconfidence and complacency given that the Boks’ last Test against Australia in September culminated in a 42-38 defeat. The big question is how Erasmus intends to manage the group in subsequent weeks, when they play back-to-back Tests against the leading teams in Europe.

It remains to be seen whether he will deploy other World Cup winners like Cobus Reinach, Canan Moodie, Franco Mostert and Marco van Staden, or a two-time Rugby Championship title winner in Aphelele Fassi. Six uncapped players are touring with the Boks and may be unleashed in the coming weeks.

The extent of South Africa’s depth is best highlighted by the names that were omitted from the initial 37-man squad. These players may yet travel to Europe if there are further injuries. Boan Venter and Johan Grobbelaar were at the heart of the Springboks’ demolition of the Irish scrum in November last year.

Lock Jean Kleyn has been ­outstanding for Gloucester in recent months, and yet another World Cup winner, scrumhalf Jaden ­Hendrikse, has been a key player in the Sharks’ ­resurgence.

Rotation vs minute management

Erasmus has favoured the split-squad strategy many times over the past nine years and rotated his group over the course of last year’s tour to Europe without compromising the team’s push for five consecutive results.

Although the same strategy paid off in July, with Erasmus rotating the group over the course of Tests against England, Scotland and Wales, the coach opted for a different approach in the Greatest Rivalry series against the All Blacks.

Fourteen players, namely Ox Nché, Gerhard Steenekamp, Wilco Louw, Malcolm Marx, Ruan Nortjé, Etzebeth, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Jasper Wiese, Reinach, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Manie Libbok, Esterhuizen, Damian de Allende and Jesse Kriel, featured in each of the four Tests.

Instead of making wholesale changes after one or two matches, Erasmus opted to manage the players’ minutes over the course of the series. It’s fair to say that the Boks were the fresher of the two teams in the finale staged in Baltimore, where they won 43-28 and clinched the series 3-1.

Perhaps the Bok coach may follow a similar formula over the next three weeks as he tries to secure a place in the Nations Championship decider. On the other hand, he may use the France and Ireland fixtures to expose several youngsters and fringe players to world-class teams in foreign conditions – and find out whether they are ready for the World Cup next year.

The latter course of action may ensure that some of the aforementioned veterans receive a minor reprieve before a possible final.

If he gets the balance right, the Boks may be ideally placed to fire on the last weekend of the tournament, whereas other title contenders may be further depleted and – like Italy this Saturday – be there for the taking. DM

This story first appeared in our weekly DM168 newspaper, available countrywide for R39. The e-edition of Daily Maverick’s weekly newspaper, DM168, is now free for readers who are signed into their Daily Maverick account. Click here to access the latest e-edition.

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Jon Cardinelli