The affordability election that teaches Democrats nothing

Republicans have a trust problem on affordability, and Democrats are poised to inherit it.

If Democrats do as well tonight as polls suggest, everyone knows the two reasons why: affordability and President Donald Trump. For a year now, The POLITICO Poll has consistently found that half of Americans rank the cost of living as one of their top three issues — and in a series of surveys this month, most Democratic voters say their vote is more about Trump than the candidates on the ballot.

But our polling also reveals the challenges for a Democratically-controlled Congress. Democrats have opened up a strong advantage on affordability, but voters who are demanding action may quickly turn on a party that finds itself torn between competing priorities.

Much of the Democratic coalition is approaching the midterms as a referendum on Trump, meaning a victory tonight would offer few clear lessons about what should come next.

Democratic voters’ two biggest demands — drive down the cost of living and stop Trump — can also conflict, especially when it comes time to govern. Asked to choose between passing bipartisan legislation to reduce the cost of living or avoid giving the Trump administration any wins, Democrats are not united. Twenty-nine percent would prefer to sacrifice progress on affordability to help their 2028 chances.

Here is what a year of The POLITICO Poll tells us about the electorate heading into the midterms — and what comes next.

Other issues have risen and fallen, but the cost of living has remained in a tier of its own. Even as global instability rose in the spring, roughly half of Americans still ranked the cost of living among the country’s top three issues. The central test of the midterms has barely changed.

Republicans’ problem isn’t just that voters are focused on cost of living – it’s that they increasingly trust Democrats to bring it down. Over the last year, Democrats have solidified support from their own base and made small gains among voters who went for Trump or sat out in 2024. That alone was enough to widen their advantage from 2 points to 17 points.

Over half of voters supporting a Democratic candidate say their vote is more about Trump and his performance than the candidates themselves. That sentiment is particularly pronounced among progressives and those who have felt the squeeze of rising grocery and gas prices.This reveals a risk for Democrats. Learning how to beat Trump is less valuable than learning how to run candidates with popular platforms of their own — particularly with only two years left before he is no longer the president.

Over the past year, we tested Democratic voters on a series of trade-offs between standing on principle and risking control of the House or the fight against Trump. They agreed on one thing: Lying to win is a bridge too far. Beyond that, Democratic voters are often split between principle and pragmatism. A narrow victory could sharpen the party’s progressive-moderate divide, but the larger question for a Democratic Congress would be how hard to fight Trump’s agenda.

Before the 2024 presidential election, PF Global’s polling showed a dynamic that might sound familiar. Trump voters believed nearly every part of American life was getting worse. Now, under a Republican administration, their outlook has brightened — while Harris voters have grown markedly gloomier. The reversal shows how quickly partisan control shapes public perception. If Democrats retake Congress, they may gain not only the power to address voters’ problems, but the burden of solving them.

Seb Wride is the head of polling at PF Global, the London-based firm that runs The POLITICO Poll.