Thunder vs. Mavericks NBA picks: Will short-handed Oklahoma City fall from ranks of unbeatens Wednesday?

We enter a busy NBA slate of action Wednesday, with only four unbeaten teams left. And somewhat strangely all of them reside in the Western Conference. But I believe one of those clubs is poised for that first loss tonight when the injury-ravaged Oklahoma City Thunder visit the Dallas Mavericks in the rivals' first meeting of the season. Claim the best Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS55, trade $25, and receive a $55 bonus here:

The first game of an ESPN doubleheader tonight is 76ers at Pacers with a 7 ET tip and this follows at 9:30 ET. Bettors apparently don't agree with my upset thoughts as OKC at -6.5 is taking 73% of bets and 65% of money. On the total of 229.5, the Over is taking similar leans.

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Thunder vs. Mavericks NBA same-game parlay

Dallas +6.5

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 25+ points

FanDuel SGP price: +121 (subject to change)

I haven't really had time yet to address the serious leg injury suffered by Thunder All-Star forward Jalen Williams in Sunday's game against the Clippers. It looked quite bad, and the 25-year-old had to be stretchered off the court with what turned out to be a fractured fibula and dislocated left ankle, according to general manager Sam Presti. The team hasn't given a definitive timeline, but we are talking months and maybe the season.

Such a bummer for Williams, who has been plagued by injuries since his breakout 2024-25 season as he was limited to just 33 regular-season games last year for a variety of issues. Williams, probably the club's second-most important player after two-time MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, also missed 10 of Oklahoma City's 15 playoff games, exiting three other games early. He played through a wrist injury in helping OKC to the 2025 title. I believe a full-strength Thunder would have gotten past the inexperienced Spurs in the 2026 West Finals.

The Williams injury did shift some Thunder futures odds from a general ballpark of +160 to win the West to +200 (behind San Antonio at +165), +300 for the NBA title to +360, and a win total of 61.5 to 58.5. And none of that movement really included the serious shoulder injury also suffered by Cason Wallace, who recently signed a five-year, $139 million extension.

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The defensive dynamo, a first-team All-Defensive selection last season, moved into the starting lineup this season with the offseason trade/salary dump of Lu Dort to Atlanta. But Wallace suffered a torn labrum in his left shoulder against the Clippers and his return this season is also in doubt. Keep in mind that the Thunder are a lot thinner than last year as it is thanks to the offseason trades of Dort, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins in salary dumps.

And now another stellar defender in guard Alex Caruso is out for this game after leaving Monday's win over Phoenix with a right ankle sprain. He was set to see additional minutes with the Williams and Wallace injuries. Last season, the Thunder had four perimeter players who were recent All-Defensive honorees in Dort, Williams, Wallace and Caruso. None obviously will play here.

Guys like Ajay Mitchell, Jared McCain and rookie Bennett Stirtz will be counted on more now that Caruso is down. Big man Chet Holmgren will miss a second game in a row with patellar tendinitis in his right knee. And Mitchell (16.0 PPG) is iffy with an ankle issue. He just had a career-high 30 points Monday. 

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I have no idea what to make of the Mavericks this season with a first-year head coach in Dusty May, a second-year superstar in Cooper Flagg and then some veterans who may or may not be sticking around after the trade deadline in Kyrie Irving, PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford. The Mavs have alternated wins and losses this season, and both wins were pretty impressive -- on the road at Indiana and Miami.

Flagg was originally questionable for Monday's 113-109 victory vs. the Heat – he sat out Saturday with a sore shoulder -- but played and well with 29 points, 11 rebounds, five steals and three blocks. Irving had 18 points, six rebounds and six assists. He's not on tonight's injury report. Walter Clayton added 15 points, four assists and four steals in just 17 minutes.

Clayton was signed a two-way contract only last week after being waived by Memphis and the Mavericks were plus-22 when the 2025 Final Four Most Outstanding Player for Florida was on the floor. Clayton got more run with backup point guard and rookie first-round pick Sergio De Larrea sidelined due to a knee injury suffered in the second quarter.

I will say that Irving is questionable tonight with a knee. It's not part of a back-to-back and he played 33 minutes on Monday, so I tend to think he goes. Forwards Naji Marshall (13.7 PPG) and Caleb Martin are questionable, with Martin yet to debut this season. Welcome the modern-day NBA where it's about impossible to make an informed decision early in the day. Claim the best Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS55, trade $25, and receive a $55 bonus here:

To no surprise, Oklahoma City swept the 2025-26 series 3-0, those wins by an average of about 13 points. But these are not those Thunder right now, and Dallas covered two of them. If Irving and Marshall play, I think the Mavs may win outright. The model has OKC winning 118-115. It also has Gilgeous-Alexander with 44.5 points but that has to be a mistake. I'd sure think he gets to at least 25, though, with all those other guys out. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.

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