UTSA vs. Florida Atlantic picks, predictions: Upset loss would end Roadrunners' College Football Playoff hopes

Am I delirious or didn't there used to be at least one good power conference game on Thursday nights in college football not all that long ago? That's not the case these days, apparently, and I'm not sure what changed – but obviously the Group of 6 programs will take any national TV attention they can get. There are two games on tonight's slate, but the bigger one is UTSA vs. Florida Atlantic from the American Conference. Bet on college football at DraftKings, where new users get $200 in bonus bets and three free months of NBA League Pass when they spend $5+:

It's a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff on ESPN from Boca Raton/Del Boca Vista, and the weather looks great, as it usually does this time of year in Florida: Clear skies. Low 72F. Winds NE at 5 to 10 mph. At -6.5 on DraftKings, UTSA is taking 69% of ATS handle but only 28% of bets. The massively high total of 72.5, among the highest nationally this season, is seeing heavy money to the Over with 86% of money and 60% of tickets. I'll never bet an Over 70 in my life, college or NFL. Or 60 probably. It's -110 to the under and over.

You can try college football betting on the best sports betting apps, but first you should check out the SportsLine Projection Model for picks on games from both the simulations and our experts. We have a strong play here for those who want to get into parlay betting for UTSA vs. Florida Atlantic. Claim the best Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS55, trade $25, and receive a $55 bonus here:

UTSA vs. FAU same-game parlay

Owls alt +10.5

Alt Under 80.5

DraftKings price: +109 (subject to change)

The first College Football Playoff rankings came out Tuesday, and I didn't take a massive amount from that regarding the power conference schools – nice to see my Hurricanes No. 1 in those rankings for the first time in school history -- but the Malachi Toney injury news Wednesday destroyed me. You should be aware that of 11 of the 12 total CFP national champions opened ranked in the top four, so that's good news for Miami, No. 2 Georgia, No. 3 Utah and No. 4 Indiana.

I'm here to focus on those rankings regarding the Group of 6 and UTSA's shot to make the playoff. The Roadrunners (7-1, 4-0 American) were not ranked in the Top 25. The lone G6 school that was: Boise State of the Pac-12 at No. 25.

The Broncos, who staged a big rally last week to avoid a home upset vs. Texas State by one point, have the national name recognition and the clear path to the playoff if they win out; they are +100 to get there and -122 for No. Looking at Boise's slate, it may well win out, although the Pac-12 title game might be a problem against perhaps Oregon State. The SportsLine Projection Model gives BSU a 77.7% shot at the playoff, which is sixth-best nationally and better than Ohio State (69.6%).

If Boise State were to be tripped up, as of today the other G6 top candidates appear to be UTSA and New Mexico of the Mountain West. Both have just the one quality loss: The Roadrunners at then-No. 1 Texas and the Lobos at then-ranked Oklahoma. But UTSA's overall schedule has been better and will only continue to get more so.

Coach Jeff Traylor's club is +600 for the playoff with No at -950. The model gives the club only a 0.7% shot that is 40th in the nation. If it does get in, Traylor is almost certainly being snapped up by a power school, as has been rumored the past few years. UTSA is bowl eligible for the seventh straight season under Traylor, and the 7-1 start is the school's best since 2021.

This is always a good offensive team under Traylor and ranks fourth in the American at 33.5 PPG. The starting QB is senior Owen McCown, with the lefty the son of Vikings QBs coach and longtime NFL QB Josh McCown. Owen has started 35 straight games and thrown for 1,751 yards, 10 TDs and four picks this year. Running back Will Henderson III has rushed 109 times for 664 yards and five scores. Use the latest BetMGM bonus code CBSSPORTS to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets when you bet on college football:

I won't spend too much time on Florida Atlantic, but the Owls would get bowl-eligible with a win and they are 4-0 at home (3-1 ATS). FAU has been even better than UTSA offensively in averaging 37.8 points per game. QB Caden Veltkamp has completed 227 of 316 passes for 2,536 yards and 23 touchdowns against five interceptions.

Wideout Easton Messer is a big-play threat with 74 catches (No. 1 in nation) for 898 yards (No. 5) and nine TDs (tied fifth), and he also has returned two punts for TDs. He is the only player this century to record two receiving, two rushing, and a punt return touchdown in the same game. Messer did that on Oct. 24 vs. Rice. Claim the best Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS55, trade $25, and receive a $55 bonus here:

The issue is a defense that's allowing 468.9 yards and 35.8 points per contest. Guess I'm understanding this total. Two of four opponents to visit Boca this season combined for just 20 points in their losses, while the other two combined for 79 points in their defeats. We just need a few punts. Say four. 

It's the sixth all-time meeting; FAU leads 3-2 and 2-1 in Boca. But UTSA has won the past two – including its last trip to Florida in 2023. They haven't played since 2024 in Texas.  

I believe FAU has a decent shot at the outright upset, as UTSA has looked a bit shaky at times away, not even including the loss to the Longhorns, so if you wanted to simply play +7.5 as insurance that's probably good. And via the total, I jacked it up partly for giggles as I like totals of 80 ... while keeping a plus-money number. Probably being overly cautious there, too, as the model has 63 total points. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.

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