What have we learned from first round of Premiership?

Published29 October 2026

It's a common answer from managers - they do not look at the league table until at least every team has faced one another.

That point is now here in the Scottish Premiership after Wednesday's dramatic full card marked the first circuit of games in Scotland's top flight.

Plenty of managers, whether their team is going well or not, are still saying how early it is in the 38-game campaign and they are right.

But nonetheless where the league table sits after 11 matches can instructive of how it ends up in May.

In two of the last three seasons for example, the teams sitting in the top six at this stage ended up staying there.

So what has the season so far taught us about what might lie ahead?

Three-way title race big ask

Hearts were one of the major stories of European football last season when they came within minutes of being the first non-Old Firm side to win the league since 1985.

Wouter Vrancken's new-look team have made a strong start as they sit third, eight points behind Celtic and four behind Rangers despite a big summer rebuild and the Belgian implementing a new style of play which he has described as "organised chaos".

They have certainly delivered on that - as only Celtic have scored more goals, and Hearts are a formidable opponent at Tynecastle where they are unbeaten in the league since April 2025, a run of 26 games.

Beatings have been handed out to Dundee United and St Mirren already in Gorgie.

Wednesday's 2-2 draw at home to Rangers should have been a victory for Hearts which brought them closer to the top two - but ultimately their injury-ravaged squad was exposed late on and they remain closer to Dundee in fourth.

Those key injuries, while juggling European football, plus an unconvincing away record which included a 7-1 clobbering at Celtic Park, means Hearts might struggle to hang on to the pace set by the Old Firm.

Despite Celtic supporters being wholly unconvinced by their team, they are on course to reach over 90 points this season, having won the title with 82 last season, the lowest tally since 2017-18.

Likewise Rangers have doubters among their own, but they and their rivals are in the top two positions of a lot of key performance metrics.

Whether it's expected goals for and against, shots on target per game, chances created, Celtic and Rangers are comfortably in the top two positions and are the only sides conceding fewer than one goal per game on average.

As they should be, given their financial advantages, and with Rangers not playing in European football this season they should be extra rested and focused on domestic duty.

Kilmarnock current favourites for drop

Kilmarnock are bottom of the table, but by no means cut adrift as they sit level on points with Hibernian and only one behind Motherwell.

Despite that, they are the bookmakers favourites for automatic relegation. The main reason is simply the goals against column.

Neil McCann's side have conceded 26 goals already, the most at this stage of the season since Dundee in 2018-19, who let in 28 in 11 games and went down.

In the last 10 seasons, only twice has the team with the worst defensive record avoided finishing bottom.

That was Tony Docherty's Dundee in 2024-25, and Hamilton Academical in 2017-18. Both those teams were bailed out by their attacking game, with Dundee scoring the fourth-most goals in the league that particular season and Accies ending up sixth for goals scored.

Right now, Kilmarnock are not scoring enough to compensate for their defensive lapses having netted the joint fewest goals in the Premiership so far.

McCann has asked for patience from fans as they try to build their way into the season, and the former winger proved last term he can turn around an ailing side.

But if they do not stop conceding at their current rate, they will have to score three every week to win games. That is not sustainable.

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Top-six race wide open

Only six points separate Dundee in fourth to Aberdeen in ninth, yet the mood around both those clubs in particular could scarcely be more different.

Even the bottom three of Motherwell, Hibs, and Kilmarnock are a good run away from catapulting themselves into top-half contention.

With so many teams so closely matched and games decided on fine margins, it is useful to look at the 'expected points' table to try to predict future results.

That is the number of points a team might have expected to pick up based on the quality of chances they have created, and conceded.

It shows both Hibs and Motherwell as the biggest underperformers in the league, which may give both some optimism they can turn a corner.

Hibs would have been expected to pick up a massive seven extra points when looking at opportunities at both ends, and Motherwell are six worse off overall.

Meanwhile Falkirk and Dundee are judged to have taken four and three more points than forecasted, which could indicate a drop off is incoming.

However, the data will not capture the intangibles, like the work-rate and team spirit both John McGlynn and Steven Pressley have clearly fostered at their clubs.

And the biggest difference between underperformers Hibs and Motherwell, and the overperformers Dundee and Falkirk, is chance conversion.

The former two are in the bottom three for shot conversion, while the latter pair are in the top four. Quality and confidence of strikers may be the clear difference in a tight league.

What's clear is it's going to be an almighty scrap between most of the Premiership to get into the top half, and those who miss out might not be far from the drop.

So buckle up, it's going to be a bumpy ride.

Related topics

Football

Scottish Football

Scottish Premiership

Rangers

Celtic

Heart of Midlothian

Kilmarnock

Hibernian

Dundee

Falkirk

Motherwell