Why is the US bombing Somalia – and who are the airstrikes killing?

The Trump administration is engaged in a covert, legally ambiguous but increasingly aggressive military campaign in Somalia. But as the US ramps up its attacks, it is becoming harder to follow who is actually being killed.

Officials have stopped publishing detailed data on casualty figures from US airstrikes in the Horn of Africa. At the same time, the number of attacks on targets in Somalia has soared to record levels.

Why is the US bombing Somalia?

The strikes are part of a long-running military campaign to bolster security by degrading al-Shabaab, an Islamist extremist group, and more recently an Islamic State offshoot – IS-Somalia – in the north of the country. Al-Shabaab has never conducted an attack in the US, but falls under the country’s wider “war on terror”.

How did the US airstrikes in Somalia start?

They began with the emergence of al-Shabaab, designated as a foreign terrorist organisation by the US in 2008. At first, senior militant leaders were targeted with operations escalating with the introduction of drone strikes in 2011. Over time, the bombing has grown from a few airstrikes (11 over the course of the Bush administration) to scores each year.

How often are they bombing?

Frequently, and the tempo is increasing. Latest data indicates 64 US strikes in Somalia this year, averaging about a bombing every two or three days, and surpassing the total number conducted by US forces during the entire Biden administration. Trump has already conducted 190 strikes in his second term, compared with 219 in his first term as president – a huge increase from the 51 across Biden’s time in government.

What has changed during the latest Trump term?

The loosening of the rules of engagement for drone strikes has allowed the number of attacks to reach unprecedented levels. Strikes target al-Shabaab and IS-Somalia.

What has been the effect on al-Shabaab’s operations?

Modest. The Islamist group continues to control significant parts of the country and key roads, reaching within 25 miles (40km) of Mogadishu last year. US airstrikes are not seen as having significantly shifted the military balance, with some analysts describing it as a “strategic stalemate”.

How many Somali civilians have been killed?

The number is a topic of significant dispute. US Africa command admits just six. The monitoring group Airwars, however, has documented 103 separate alleged incidents in which it estimates the US has killed up to 170 Somali civilians. A Guardian investigation into one bombing last year in Jamaame found evidence that 12 civilians had been killed in the attack, including eight children.

Have any Somali civilians been compensated?

No. Despite years of pressure from lawyers and human rights groups, the US government has yet to pay compensation for a single Somali casualty or affected families.