Why Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell should be on hot seat despite NFL-best 6-1 record

The Minnesota Vikings (6-1) are in co-possession of the best record in the NFL with the Buffalo Bills and the San Francisco 49ers entering Week 9, the halfway point of the 2026 season. However, head coach Kevin O'Connell should be on the hot seat. 

How could both of those things be true? Let's take a quick look at what is powering the Vikings' early-season success and then take a deep dive into why O'Connell's bungling of his quarterback position -- both in 2026 and years prior -- in tandem with wasting Justin Jefferson and a poor playoff record should be causing his seat to be increasing in temperature.

O'Connell is Minnesota's head coach and offensive play caller, but defensive coordinator Brian Flores' blitzkrieg defense is why the Vikings have won six of their first seven games. Minnesota's defense leads the NFL in the following statistics:

Scoring defense (13.3 points per game allowed)

Red zone defense (25% red zone touchdown rate allowed)

Goal-line defense (37.5% goal-line touchdown rate allowed)

Completion percentage allowed (56.2%)

Touchdown-to-interception ratio allowed (4-8)

Sack rate (11%)

QB pressure rate (46%)

Blitz rate (73.6%, the highest by any team in the 21st century)

However, O'Connell's offense is powered by 2022 NFL Offensive Player of the Year wide receiver Justin Jefferson, two-time Pro Bowl tight end T.J. Hockenson, former first-round pick wide receiver Jordan Addison, two-time Pro Bowl quarterback Kyler Murray and an offensive line that is allowing the fifth-longest time to pressure (2.71 seconds) in the NFL this season. Yet, it has scored 12 touchdowns. That is the fewest touchdowns by a team with a 6-1 record or better through seven games since Washington in 1982. 

The only team that has scored fewer touchdowns than the Vikings in 2026 is the winless Los Angeles Chargers with nine. Both the tanking Miami Dolphins (13 touchdowns) and the Deshaun Watson-led Cleveland Browns (13 touchdowns) have found the end zone more often than O'Connell's unit. 

That's embarrassing, and it's grounds for a potential coaching change come the offseason if things don't improve.

Kyler Murray's fit in Kevin O'Connell's scheme 

The problem Minnesota has this season is that Murray isn't fitting well in O'Connell's scheme. Murray's -0.11 expected points added (EPA) per dropback is the fifth worst in the entire NFL, ahead of only Cam Ward (-0.12), Tanner McKee (-0.13), Daniel Jones (-0.19) and Justin Herbert (-0.22). 

O'Connell's offense thrived with Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold heaving the ball deep down the field to Jefferson and others over the middle of the field. Murray entered 2026 ranking 40th out of 45 qualified quarterbacks in throws of 10-22 yards (intermediate throws) between the numbers (over the middle of the field). That's why his connection with Marvin Harrison Jr. failed in Arizona. 

Murray much prefers throwing to the sideline with underneath completions to stay in rhythm. Just 10.7% of his throws in 2025 with the Cardinals traveled 10 or more air yards downfield, which ranked third among 42 quarterbacks with at least 150 passes last season. This season playing for O'Connell, 34.4% of Murray's throws are traveling 10 or more air yards, which is the 10th-highest rate in the NFL. 

That's why he is failing in Minnesota: Murray isn't a scheme fit, but O'Connell chose him anyway. However, the Vikings head coach is publicly in denial about how things are going with his squad, which ranks as the league's sixth-worst scoring offense (20.0 points per game). 

"It's going back through it. Any of the inconsistencies, really dive into the why. I don't necessarily believe it's going to be one tell-all thing," O'Connell told reporters postgame Sunday. "I think it's how we continue to put together the plans of where he's most comfortable in his alignment and then marrying the offense from there. I think we've done a good job of that."  

Despite 10th overall pick J.J. McCarthy ranking dead last in the NFL in completion percentage (57.6%), touchdown-to-interception ratio (11-12) and passer rating (72.6) in his first full season as a starting quarterback in 2025, the Vikings offense was actually more efficient than it is now. Minnesota's playmakers know what the issues are. Jefferson left the locker room after the Week 8 loss without speaking to media members while Addison offered a direct assessment.

"It's not really about finding ourselves; it's just making routine plays," Addison told reporters postgame Sunday. "When you turn on the tape, we got guys open [in the pass game]. Running the ball, we got gaps that are open. We just got to execute honestly."

Points per drive

1.93

1.85

Yards per play

5.0

4.7

Success rate

45%

40%

O'Connell's handling of his quarterback position

You know what would be an ideal situation right now? If O'Connell had the chance to sub in McCarthy for a struggling Murray to see if the former top 10 pick takes a leap after another year of season in his system. Instead, Minnesota chose to trade him away to the New York Giants in exchange for a bag of peanuts -- a 2027 fifth-round pick. 

Instead, all O'Connell has is a washed-up iteration of Carson Wentz and undrafted veteran Max Brosmer, a player with no touchdown passes and four interceptions across his seven NFL games. It took O'Connell and the Vikings a few years to make enough missteps to end up in this position. One could argue the merits of letting a 36-year-old Kirk Cousins walk in free agency. But Minnesota ended up pulling a rabbit out of the hat with Darnold a year after Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers rehabbed the 2018 NFL Draft's third overall pick while making him Brock Purdy's backup. 

Darnold piloted a Vikings offense that ranked No. 9 in scoring (25.4 points per game) as he threw for a career-high 35 passing touchdowns, the fifth-most in the NFL in 2024. Minnesota went 14-3 in the regular season but lost the de facto NFC North division title game in Week 18 against the Detroit Lions. Just a few weeks later, Darnold absorbed an NFL playoff-record nine sacks in a wild card round defeat against the Los Angeles Rams, souring O'Connell's perspective on his new Pro Bowl quarterback. 

Instead of building upon Darnold's successful 2024 season, O'Connell decided to let the 28-year-old walk in favor of McCarthy. As mentioned earlier, McCarthy was the NFL's cellar dweller in several metrics in his first year as a starting quarterback at football's highest level at 22 years old last season. Meanwhile, in Seattle, Darnold quarterbacked the Seahawks to a Super Bowl title, throwing five touchdowns and no interceptions in his new team's three playoff games, with only six sacks. That's just an average of two sacks per game in the Seahawks' championship run. 

Just like with Darnold, O'Connell decided to throw McCarthy away after one season of failure. Meanwhile in New York, McCarthy became the first Giants quarterback with at least five completions of 20-plus yards in consecutive games since Daniel Jones back in 2019. The Giants have also remained the NFC East's first-place team through eight weeks with a 4-2-1 record. 

Playoff failures

Since becoming the Vikings' head coach in 2022, O'Connell is 49-26, good for the fifth-best regular-season record in football, along with the 49ers. However, that has translated to just two postseason appearances (2022 and 2024) and no playoff wins. The two losses were the aforementioned faceplant against the Rams in the 2024 season and a 31-24 home loss against the Daniel Jones-led Giants. The next week, that same Giants team lost 38-7 at the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC divisional round.

Two games isn't a massive sample size, but in both playoff games, O'Connell was clearly outcoached. 

Wasting Justin Jefferson 

Four-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Justin Jefferson raced out to a historic start to his NFL career: His 7,432 yards receiving from 2020 to 2024 are the most in a player's first five seasons in league history. That production resulted in Jefferson averaging 96.5 receiving yards per game, which also ranked as the most ever in the NFL.   

Then, J.J. McCarthy happened. McCarthy wasn't ready for the speed of the NFL game, ranking dead last in the entire league in completion percentage (57.6%), touchdown-to-interception ratio (11-12), and passer rating (72.6) in 2025. His ineptitude led to Jefferson posting career lows in receiving yards (1,048) and receiving touchdowns (2) in 2025, which dropped his receiving yards per game average down to 90.2 -- the second-most in NFL history behind Puka Nacua's 95.3 average.

Now, Kyler Murray is a poor scheme fit, which has Jefferson averaging a career-low 55.8 receiving yards per game in 2026. That's brought his career average down to 88.2 receiving yards per game. Jefferson still has a pathway toward being an all-timer -- he still has 8,815 career receiving yards through his first 100 games -- but he can see that path narrowing under O'Connell the last two seasons. That's why he let loose a rare display of public frustration on the sideline on Sunday. 

Justin Jefferson Is Clearly Pissed On The Sideline.

Overthrown, Underthrown, And Watching Kyler Miss Him All Day.

And The Trade Deadline Is This Week.

Just Saying. 👀📞 https://t.co/slF8rftvzX pic.twitter.com/VPueiaCCVl

— SM Highlights (@SMHighlights1) November 1, 2026

Justin Jefferson Is Clearly Pissed On The Sideline.

Overthrown, Underthrown, And Watching Kyler Miss Him All Day.

And The Trade Deadline Is This Week.

Just Saying. 👀📞 https://t.co/slF8rftvzX pic.twitter.com/VPueiaCCVl

Julio Jones 

9,618

Lance Alworth*

9,013  

Justin Jefferson

8,815

Calvin Johnson*

8,740

Randy Moss*

8,680

* Pro Football Hall of Famer

A potential reckoning is coming

O'Connell's and Murray's lack of offensive synergy wasn't fully exposed until the 19-15 loss at the Lions on Sunday. Five of their six wins to begin the year were against teams that are outside the playoff picture or had a starting quarterback injury in the middle of the game. 

The Vikings beat the Packers, a current playoff team with a 5-3 record, 39-22 in Week 1 before beating the Chicago Bears 9-3 in Week 2 after Bears quarterback Caleb Williams departed with a hamstring injury. The other four wins were against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (23-16), the Miami Dolphins (15-10), the New Orleans Saints (23-13) and the Indianapolis Colts (16-10). The best record of those squads, outside of Green Bay and Chicago, belongs to the 3-5 Buccaneers. 

Now, the Vikings' offensive issues stand to be majorly exposed over the next three weeks. Minnesota plays the Bills (6-1) on "Monday Night Football" in Week 9, at Lambeau Field against the Packers in Week 10 and at the 49ers on "Sunday Night Football" in Week 11. That's the toughest stretch of games in the NFL from Weeks 8-11. 

Week 8 

at Detroit Lions (5-2)  

L, 19-15

Week 9

vs. Buffalo Bills (6-1)

?

Week 10 

at Green Bay Packers (5-3)

?

Week 11

at San Francisco 49ers (6-1)

?

* Hardest schedule in NFL over span

The bottom line

Some team could soon be banging down Flores' door after the defensive masterclass he is putting together this season. That puts the Vikings in a spot where they may have to lose one of the best defensive masterminds in football next offseason. If Minnesota ends up missing the playoffs or fails to win a playoff game, wasting what is shaping up to be an all-time year from its defense, O'Connell would certainly face -- and earn -- heightened scrutiny.

Perhaps there's a chance O'Connell's job could go to Flores by promoting him to be their head coach instead of losing him to another team. Regardless, O'Connell's lack of success in evaluating his quarterback position, despite his reputation as a "quarterback guru," along with wasting Justin Jefferson and a lack of results in the playoffs, deserves plenty of skepticism, 6-1 record be damned. 

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