World Cup: Brazil, Scotland, Canada, Mexico weigh priorities as sprint to knockout phase begins | Africa Front
Via CBS Sports
World Cup: Brazil, Scotland, Canada, Mexico weigh priorities as sprint to knockout phase begins
<h2>How much can Scotland afford to lose by against Brazil, and should Canada try to dodge Belgium in the bracket?</h2>
<p>And so we have arrived to the <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/soccer/news/world-cup-2026-schedule-times-dates/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">final round of World Cup games</a>, my own personal nirvana. While I am deeply skeptical about the competitive imbalance of <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/soccer/news/world-cup-group-standings-table-results/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">eight third-placed teams</a> qualifying for the round of 32 -- won't someone think about how much less information Scotland have to operate with than the rest? -- the various toings and froings of the race to secure qualification spots are going to be deeply exciting for me. Will South Korea be fine with a one-goal defeat? How about if they lose by two? Should Algeria and Austria do anything other than leave the ball in the center circle when they face off later this week?</p>
<p>There are so few things we know for sure. Among those unknowns is just what Scotland can get away with. It is with Steve Clarke's side and their pursuit of a first-ever knockout game that we begin.</p>
<h2>Can Scotland survive a narrow defeat?</h2>
<p>There was much talk in the build-up to Scotland's opener about how they really needed to run up the goals against Haiti. That was not to dismiss the CONCACAF side nor to overrate the Scots but an assessment viewed on a very straightforward presumption as to how Group C would break. Trapped with Brazil and Morocco, it always seemed that the likeliest scenario for the flowers of Scotland to bud in the knockout stages was as one of the eight best-placed third teams. Right now, that is what they are, but goodness it threatens to be close.</p>
<p>1</p>
<p>Brazil</p>
<p>2</p>
<p>1</p>
<p>1</p>
<p>0</p>
<p>4</p>
<p>1</p>
<p>3</p>
<p>4</p>
<p>2</p>
<p>Morocco</p>
<p>2</p>
<p>1</p>
<p>1</p>
<p>0</p>
<p>2</p>
<p>1</p>
<p>1</p>
<p>4</p>
<p>3</p>
<p>Scotland</p>
<p>2</p>
<p>1</p>
<p>0</p>
<p>1</p>
<p>1</p>
<p>1</p>
<p>0</p>
<p>3</p>
<p>4</p>
<p>Haiti</p>
<p>2</p>
<p>0</p>
<p>0</p>
<p>2</p>
<p>0</p>
<p>4</p>
<p>-4</p>
<p>0</p>
<p>Much as it was wrong to entirely write off Haiti against Scotland, so it is that one shouldn't discount Scotland getting something against Brazil. This is a team who do their best work without the ball, whose organisation and discipline blends nicely with the game-changing talents of Scott McTominay and John McGinn. Against opponents who have not lived up to their lustrous history, there is always a chance.</p>
<p>However, it is going to be tough, all the more so given that there is plenty for Brazil to play for. Losing top spot threatens to put them on the side of the bracket that leads to a quarterfinal with France or Germany. That is to say nothing of the fact that the public will expect Carlo Ancelotti's side to deliver after a poor performance against Morocco and a fairly middling win over Haiti.</p>
<p>And so at some stage, Clark might face a dilemma. If it's 1-0 or 2-1 to Brazil, do you bring on some defenders, accept the loss and the negative-one goal difference? It would probably be enough, <a href="https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/world-cup-2026-paddlin-projections" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Expecting Goals' projection</a> calculates that a team will advance in those circumstances 91% of the time. Even minus two <em>should</em> be enough <em>most</em> of the time, but goodness, would you want to gamble with it? And would you want to gamble with it if you have the footballing history of Scotland, a team that suffered the agony of beating the Netherlands in 1978 and still not making it, of pushing Brazil all the way in 1990 and 1998 but falling short?</p>
<h2>Should Canada tank out of first?</h2>
<p>Unlike their fellow hosts, Canada aren't entirely guaranteed qualification for the last 32, but it is going to take an exceedingly unlikely set of results, not just limited to their game against Switzerland, to rob Jesse Marsch's side of one more game. First things first, Bosnia would have to beat Qatar and beat Qatar well. That's quite plausible. What is less so is that the Swiss then beat Canada by such a heavy margin that their goal difference starts to look quite shaky. At the moment there is no team on four points who comes close to matching Canada's plus-six margin.</p>
<p>After all that, the other 11 groups would have to produce a string of outlandish results such that a return of four points is not enough to qualify as a best-performing third-place team. Opta gives a probability of just 0.19% that Canada's current tally means they fall short. In those occasions you would have to assume that the team has lost a game by a six-ish goal margin, not won like the Canucks have.</p>
<p>1</p>
<p>Canada</p>
<p>2</p>
<p>1</p>
<p>1</p>
<p>0</p>
<p>7</p>
<p>1</p>
<p>6</p>
<p>4</p>
<p>2</p>
<p>Switzerland</p>
<p>2</p>
<p>1</p>
<p>1</p>
<p>0</p>
<p>5</p>
<p>2</p>
<p>3</p>
<p>4</p>
<p>3</p>
<p>Bosnia & Herzegovina</p>
<p>2</p>
<p>0</p>
<p>1</p>
<p>1</p>
<p>2</p>
<p>5</p>
<p>-3</p>
<p>1</p>
<p>4</p>
<p>Qatar</p>
<p>2</p>
<p>0</p>
<p>1</p>
<p>1</p>
<p>1</p>
<p>6</p>
<p>-6</p>
<p>1</p>
<p>So mentally, Canada can operate as a team that has already qualified. That opens up an intriguing option for Marsch to consider. What about if the path to the final looks easier for second place? A runner-up would face the second-placed team in Group A, currently South Korea, and then the winner of Group F, currently a Dutch side that does not look awe-inspiring. Meanwhile, the winner of Group B faces any of the five best-performing third-placed teams. At the time of writing, that would make Belgium their round of 32 opponent.</p>
<p>Now there's quite an open conversation from the top as to whether Belgium have shown anything that should have Canada (or any other team at the World Cup) doing anything but charging straight into their path. Still, this is a team with Kevin De Bruyne and Thibaut Courtois. Perhaps they are best avoided. Getting past them in the round of 32 might then deliver a game against Colombia. That doesn't sound great, does it?</p>
<p>And yet you suspect that Canada would be a better force on home soil, as they would be up until the quarterfinals if they top their group. Worrying about who your opponent might be from the third-placed opponents is a fools errand when you're in Group B, there are simply so many variables that you would fry your mind worrying about results elsewhere. Win your game, build the vibes and go from there.</p>
<h2>Does form matter for Mexico?</h2>
<p>The hosts might have six points from a possible six, but it is hard to argue they have yet to excel in what always looked a favorable Group A. In flashes, they have impressed, but they might count themselves fortunate to have found a way through a dreary contest with South Korea, as it was their good fortune that South Africa froze in the competition's opener. With home advantage locked up for the next two games, there is reason to hope, but work to be done.</p>
<p>That complicates Javier Aguirre's approach to the game against Czechia. Does he build more reps with the XI he sees starting the knockout, or give a rest to some of his squad? After all, they've only played two competitive games in 13 days. A few hints have been proffered. Brian Gutierrez, who would be suspended for the round of 32 if he picked up another booking, will be protected. Cesar Montes will return, having served his suspension for a red card in the opener. Guillermo Ochoa, the iconic 40-year-old goalkeeper who is at his sixth World Cup? We shall have to wait and see. </p>
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