Ball State vs. UMass prediction, odds, time: Week 10 MACtion picks from proven model

The Massachusetts Minutemen will look to snap a four-game skid when they take on the visiting Ball State Cardinals in a key Mid-American Conference matchup on Wednesday night. Ball State is coming off a 34-17 win over Sacramento State on Oct. 24, while UMass dropped a 35-16 decision at Connecticut on Oct. 23. The Cardinals (3-5, 2-2 MAC), who are seventh in the conference, are 1-4 on the road this season. The Minutemen (4-4, 1-3 MAC), who are tied for 10th in the MAC, are 2-2 on their home field in 2026. Visit our Kalshi promo code review and get a $55 bonus after $25+ in trades with the Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS55:

Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET at Warren P. McGuirk Alumni Stadium in Hadley, Mass. The all-time series is tied 2-2. The Minutemen are 3.5-point favorites, with the over/under at 49.5 in the latest Ball State vs. UMass odds. Ball State is 5-3 against the spread this season, while UMass is 5-3 versus the line. Before making any Ball State vs. UMass picks, check out the Ball State vs. UMass predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

Ball State vs. Massachusetts odds

Ball State vs. UMass spread

UMass  -3.5

Ball State vs. UMass over/under

49.5 points

Ball State vs. UMass money line 

UMass -160, Ball State +142

Ball State vs. UMass picks

See picks at SportsLine

Ball State vs. UMass streaming 

Claim the latest Polymarket promo code CBSSPORTS to get a $25 bonus after depositing $10:

Top Ball State vs. UMass predictions

After simulating Ball State vs. UMass 10,000 times, SportsLine model is going Over 49.5 points at betting apps and the best college football betting sites. The Over has hit in eight of the last 10 Ball State games. Both teams have proven they can put up points this season. Massachusetts is fourth in the MAC in points scored at 26.5, while Ball State is seventh. The Cardinals, however, have a hard time stopping foes, allowing a league-worst 35.3 points per game.

The model projects that Ball State quarterback Keldric Luster will throw for more than 200 yards and one touchdown. He has thrown for 1,300 yards and nine touchdowns on the season. UMass quarterback William Watson III is projected to throw for over 225 yards and two scores. He has thrown for 1,025 yards and eight touchdowns on the year.

The computer is calling for 52 combined points as the Over is the value side 55% of the time. See the model's spread and money-line picks at SportsLine.

How to make UMass vs. Ball State picks

In addition to going Over on the total, the model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 60% of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Ball State vs. UMass, and which side of the spread hits well over 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that's on a 80-77 run on top-rated CFB picks, and find out.

Why you should trust SportsLine's model

SportsLine's model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. It entered Week 10 on a 80-77 run on all top-rated college football picks at betting sites. 

Ball State vs. UMass picks from 10,000 simulations

Daniel Kohn 2 min read

NFL midseason rookie grades: Early hits, misses and surprises Ryan Wilson 17 min read

CFP rankings reaction: Notre Dame slighted, SEC's efforts succeed Brandon Marcello 6 min read

Why trading for unproven QB could stop Ravens' season from unraveling Ryan Wilson 7 min read

Biggest WNBA offseason questions: Who will be the new commissioner? Jack Maloney 10 min read

First CFP rankings: Miami on top, SEC dominates, Ohio State left out Brad Crawford 7 min read

Super Bowl bound? Bears sit at top of NFC food chain after blockbuster deal Carter Bahns 7 min read

Fantasy waivers: Three key backfields to watch amid byes, injuries, trades Jamey Eisenberg 10 min read

Week 9 picks: Packers spoil Brady's return, Burrow balls out in Madrid John Breech 17 min read

Mariners hire Cubs exec with no managerial experience as new skipper Mike Axisa 1 min read