How Kimi Antonelli can become youngest ever F1 champion

Kimi Antonelli’s stellar season has brought him closer to a historic F1 title as he moved closer to the crown after winning the United States Grand Prix in Austin.

The 20-year-old Mercedes driver has a 123-point advantage over his nearest rival and teammate, George Russell, going into the final five races of the season and has more than one hand on the title now.

The Italian unleashed a stellar drive, which his team boss, Toto Wolff, called "the race of a champion who isn't the champion yet, but exceptional," to win the race on a one-stop pit strategy.

His nearest rivals, Lewis Hamilton and Russell, finished fourth and eighth, respectively, and the latter endured a very tough outing, as he conceded later.

The result has brought Antonelli much closer to the title, and he now has a realistic chance of winning it in the next round in Mexico. Only three drivers are mathematically still in the title race, with five more rounds scheduled.

The Italian leads the drivers' tally with 365 points, with his nearest rival, Russell, a distant second on 242 points. Hamilton is a point behind, and these are now the only three drivers who can mathematically win the title, as Antonelli's win in Austin has eliminated other distant contenders, including Max Verstappen, Charles Leclerc and 2025 champion Lando Norris.

For Antonelli to win the title in Mexico, he needs not to lose more than 23 points to Russell and not more than 24 to Hamilton. This means he needs to score just two points regardless of what Russell or Hamilton do in the next race.

If Antonelli is ninth or better, he will be guaranteed the 2026 title even if Russell or Hamilton win the race. In another scenario, if Russell or Hamilton fail to win in Mexico, the Italian will be crowned the champion even if he fails to score a single point.

He is currently 123 points ahead of Russell and 124 points ahead of Hamilton, and there are only 125 points available. If either Russell or Hamilton fails to win, they would be more than 100 points behind Antonelli, with only 100 points available after Mexico and four rounds left.

If Russell wins and Antonelli finishes ninth, the gap will be down to 100 points, and with 100 points available over the four rounds, the Italian will be crowned champion.

Even if the championship ends in a tie, Antonelli will be champion because he would have more race wins than Russell and Hamilton. He currently has nine wins this season, while Russell has three and Hamilton has one. Even if Russell wins the next five races and Antonelli scores only two points across those races, leaving him tied with his teammate at the end of the season, Antonelli would still be ahead on race wins, as he already has nine victories.

A title will make Antonelli the youngest-ever driver to win an F1 championship. Currently 20 years old, he will break Sebastian Vettel's record, who was 23 years and 134 days old when he won his maiden title in 2010.