Jeremiah Smith's Heisman hopes take hit after Ohio State's offense sputtered with new QB in USC loss

No one was quite sure what to expect from the Ohio State offense coming out of a bye with a new quarterback under center after Julian Sayin's potential season-ending injury late in the win over Indiana two weeks ago. 

A 30-18 loss on the road at USC was a concerning one for the Buckeyes on a number of fronts. The obvious is that this is a team with national championship aspirations, and while Fahey wasn't disastrous, the Buckeyes struggled to create big plays against a Trojans defense that has been among the Big Ten's worst this season at limiting explosives. 

A secondary concern in Columbus, though one that resonates nationally, is Jeremiah Smith's Heisman campaign. Smith entered the week as the solid favorite ahead of Miami's duo of Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney, but after Saturday's loss in L.A., he slipped to third in the odds (+340) behind both of the Hurricanes' stars at FanDuel Sportsbook. 

Smith had a productive game against USC with 10 catches (on 12 targets) for 83 yards and one touchdown, and the target share suggests he'll still have a puncher's chance to hold onto the Heisman he seemingly got one hand on in the first half of the season. The concern is that USC's defense was figured to be one of the friendliest Ohio State would get to play down the stretch, and Smith put up a relatively pedestrian game by his standards this season -- with much of his production coming late, with Ohio State trailing by three scores. 

That's a missed opportunity for Smith, and with Oregon, Northwestern, Nebraska, and Michigan left on the schedule, one wonders if he will have a chance to finish with the flourish he needs to hear his name called at the Heisman Trophy ceremony in early December. 

Can Luke Fahey give Smith a chance for big plays? 

Fahey went 21-of-38 for 260 yards and one touchdown, but his accuracy down the field left an awful lot to be desired -- as did his efforts when the Buckeyes got into the red zone. Much of his work was done in the short-to-intermediate passing game, asking Ohio State's skill players to make plays. 

That's understandable -- and rainy conditions in L.A. certainly could have exacerbated issues throwing downfield -- but considering Smith came into the game averaging just under 19 yards per catch, a game with 8.3 yards per reception is a considerable decline. When Fahey did try to push the ball downfield, he was typically well off target, including a miss on what should've been a long Smith touchdown, where he had two steps on his defender but slipped while trying to adjust to a ball that was well underthrown. 

USC came into the game having given up 11 passes of 30 yards or more (83rd in the country), but Smith's long on the night was 27 yards. Each of their next four opponents is statistically better defensively at preventing explosive pass plays, and while Fahey was eager to target Smith, most of those came in the short and intermediate zones. 

Early in the season, Smith's Heisman campaign and Ohio State's offensive goals were aligned. Sayin throwing down the field to Smith was their primary objective, but with Fahey they seem likely to shift to a more run-heavy approach when able -- trailing big against USC helped skew the run-pass balance considerably -- and to try to keep Fahey comfortable in the passing game, with less emphasis on throwing deep. 

Smith's Miami problem

If that is indeed the approach Ohio State takes, the biggest problem for Smith is that solid performances won't be enough. If Fahey isn't able to connect on the few deep shots he attempts, it's going to be incredibly difficult to put together the kinds of games that will keep him in the conversation with Mensah and Toney. 

Miami is headed in the opposite direction in terms of game flow, as a leaky Hurricanes defense means Miami has to let it rip with their star quarterback-receiver combo all game. That duo was strong against UNC in a shootout win in Chapel Hill on Saturday, with Mensah taking over favorite status (+170) after a 22-for-29 passing performance for 274 yards and three touchdowns. Toney (+290) only had seven catches for 75 yards, but did haul in a pair of those touchdowns, including the game-sealing score in the final minutes. 

With Notre Dame up next week for Miami, it's the Hurricanes stars that will get the spotlight performance and a chance to create a late Heisman moment in a huge national TV spot. Smith's chances at this point feel to be as much in Notre Dame's defense's hands as anything, as he needs the Irish to stymie Miami's star duo to give himself a chance at ending his sensational Ohio State career with the nation's most prestigious individual award. 

Smith is going to exit Columbus as the best receiver in Big Ten history. He has a case as one of the best college football has seen in recent memory, but if he's going to join the exclusive list of receivers to win the Heisman Trophy, it's going to require him winning what's becoming an uphill battle. 

Smith is going to need his young quarterback to show rapid improvement, get a little help from the Canes (and the Irish), and create some spectacular after-the-catch plays with fewer downfield opportunities. That's all possible, but for the first time all season, he's slipped out of favorite status for the Heisman, and both he and the Buckeyes have to have some concerns about their quarterback situation moving forward. 

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