Nigeria's Inflation Ticks Up Again as Tinubu's Reforms Grind On

Nigeria's battle with inflation took another awkward turn in May, with the headline rate edging up to 15.93 percent from 15.69 percent a month earlier — a reminder of how stubborn price pressures remain even as the government insists the worst is passing.

The increase was led by the essentials that hit households hardest: food inflation accelerated to around 17.8 percent while transport costs climbed too, pressures traced in part to a fuel price shock earlier in the year linked to conflict in the Middle East. For ordinary Nigerians, the numbers translate into a daily squeeze on the cost of feeding families and getting to work.

Yet the longer-term picture the authorities paint is one of gradual relief. The Central Bank of Nigeria forecasts headline inflation cooling to roughly 12.9 percent over the year, down sharply from an estimated 21 percent in 2025, as tight monetary policy filters through the economy. The World Bank projects growth of about 4.2 percent for 2026.

The backdrop is President Bola Tinubu's sweeping economic overhaul — the most ambitious in decades — built on ending costly fuel and energy subsidies, devaluing the naira and reworking the tax system. Those reforms triggered painful price increases and a steep currency depreciation, but they have also lifted external reserves to around 50 billion dollars, their highest level in more than a decade.

The reforms remain a gamble measured in real hardship now against the promise of stability later. May's uptick shows the road is far from smooth, and for millions of Nigerians, the question is how long the pain must last before the projected gains arrive.