Sam Houston vs. Missouri State prediction, odds, time: Week 9 Tuesday college football picks from proven model

Teams looking to get back into the win column clash when the Sam Houston Bearkats face the Missouri State Bears in a Conference USA matchup on Tuesday night. Sam Houston is coming off a 30-24 loss to New Mexico State on Wednesday, while Missouri State dropped a 61-38 decision at Delaware on Oct. 20. Sam Houston (1-6, 0-3 C-USA), who have lost four in a row, are tied for ninth in the conference and are 0-3 on the road this season. Missouri State (2-5, 1-2 C-USA), who have lost four of five, are tied for sixth in the league and are 2-1 on their home field in 2026. The all-time series is tied 1-1, with Sam Houston earning a 20-17 win in the last meeting in 2006. Visit our Kalshi promo code review and get a $55 bonus after $25+ in trades with the Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS55:

Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET at Robert W. Plaster Stadium in Springfield, Mo. The Bears are 4.5-point favorites, with the over/under at 50.5 in the latest Sam Houston vs. Missouri State odds. Before making any Missouri State vs. Sam Houston picks, check out the Sam Houston vs. Missouri State predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

Sam Houston vs. Missouri State odds

Sam Houston vs. Missouri State spread

Missouri State -4.5

Sam Houston vs. Missouri State over/under

50.5 points

Sam Houston vs. Missouri State money line 

Missouri State -205, Sam Houston +180

Sam Houston vs. Missouri State picks

See picks at SportsLine

Sam Houston vs. Missouri State streaming 

Claim the latest Polymarket promo code CBSSPORTS to get a $25 bonus after depositing $10:

Top Sam Houston vs. Missouri State predictions

After simulating Sam Houston vs. Missouri State 10,000 times, SportsLine model is going Over 50.5 points at betting apps. The Over has hit in six of the last 10 Missouri State games. Both teams have been giving up a lot of points. In seven games this season, the Bears are averaging 24.4 points per game, while allowing 34.9. Sam Houston, meanwhile, is allowing 25.3 points per game.

The model projects that Henry Belin IV throws for over 225 yards and two touchdowns for Missouri State. Landyn Locke, meanwhile, is projected to throw for 230 yards and a pair of scores.

The computer is calling for 56 combined points as the Over is the value side 63% of the time. See the model's spread and money-line picks at SportsLine.

How to make Sam Houston vs. Missouri State picks

In addition to going Over on the total, the model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 60% of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Sam Houston vs. Missouri State, and which side of the spread hits well over 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that's on a 68-59 run on top-rated CFB picks, and find out.

Why you should trust SportsLine's model

SportsLine's model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. It entered Week 9 on a 68-59 run on all top-rated college football picks at betting sites, returning nearly $400 for $100 players. Anybody following its picks on college football betting sites could have seen strong returns. 

Sam Houston vs. Missouri State picks from 10,000 simulations Daniel Kohn 2 min read

NFL trade matchmaker: Nine proposed moves teams should make Zachary Pereles 6 min read

Up 3-0, Brewers' Chourio achieves World Series feat not seen in 80 years Matt Snyder 4 min read

Five coaches on the hot seat entering the 2026-27 campaign Gary Parrish 6 min read

Ten most important games left as CFP races hit the home stretch Brad Crawford 6 min read

What guests might Jay-Z bring out for his Super Bowl halftime show? Shanna McCarriston 2 min read

Garrett Wilson landing spots: Two one-loss teams would make sense Tyler Sullivan 3 min read

NFL tweaks Week 9 and Week 11 schedules with rare double flex John Breech 2 min read

Oregon QB Dante Moore won't return in 2026 due to concussion Austin Nivison 3 min read

Jay-Z chooses himself to headline Super Bowl LXI halftime show Shanna McCarriston 2 min read