South Sudan Slides Back Toward War as Machar-Linked Forces Strike in Jonglei

South Sudan, a country that has spent much of its short existence lurching between fragile peace and open conflict, is once again teetering on the edge. A renewed rebellion, led in part by commanders loyal to former vice-president Riek Machar, seized substantial territory in Jonglei state earlier this year before a large government counter-offensive rolled most of those gains back.

The fighting did not stay contained. Clashes intensified in several other states as well, including the Equatoria region along South Sudan's borders with Kenya and Uganda — a worrying sign that instability tied to the Jonglei rebellion could spread into areas that had remained comparatively calm.

The timing could hardly be worse. South Sudan is simultaneously absorbing more than one million people who have fled the devastating war next door in Sudan, placing an overwhelming burden on a nation that was already struggling to meet the basic needs of its own population. Refugee camps and host communities alike are stretched to breaking point.

Machar's political relationship with President Salva Kiir has long been the fault line running through South Sudanese politics, a rivalry that plunged the country into civil war in the past and that continues to shape the calculus of armed actors on both sides. Each flare-up in Jonglei revives fears that the fragile peace arrangements holding the country together could unravel entirely.

For a nation this young, still building the institutions of statehood while absorbing the fallout of a neighbour's catastrophe, renewed rebellion is a devastating setback. Whether the government's counter-offensive marks the end of this particular flashpoint, or merely a pause before the next one, remains an open and anxious question.