Who's the World Series MVP frontrunner? Plus more pressing questions for Brewers vs. Rays Game 4

After a 10-1 ritual dismantling by the Milwaukee Brewers on Monday night, the Tampa Bay Rays are down 3-0 in the best-of-seven World Series and face an elimination game in Tuesday night's Game 4 (8 p.m. ET).

The odds of a comeback in the series are all but insurmountable. Across all of Major League Baseball postseason history up until now, 42 teams have been down 3-0, and only one – the 2004 Boston Red Sox – has come back to win the series in question. Stated another way, history suggests the Rays have a mere 2.4% chance of pulling off the miracle comeback and winning four straight from the Brewers. Really, though, it may be even harder than that. Teams down 0-3 who began the series on the road, as the Rays did, have been down 0-3 18 times in MLB postseason history and lost all of those series. 

There is slightly more hope when it comes to extending the series. Teams down 0-3 in MLB postseason series have won Game 4 23.8% of the time. That really has to be the focus for Kevin Cash and the on-the-brink Rays – to survive another day. 

Speaking of which, that brings us to three questions for Game 4 – the answers to which will determine whether the Rays can survive long enough to force a Game 5 and maybe just maybe begin chiseling out a baseball miracle. Let's get to it. 

Will the Rays finally break through against the Milwaukee bullpen?

One of the biggest on-paper edges for the Brewers coming into this series was the depth of Pat Murphy's bullpen. Indeed, the Brewers bullpen has been all but impregnable in this World Series and indeed throughout the entire postseason. This is best exemplified by lefty relief ace Aaron Ashby, who this postseason has to allow a run in eight appearances. Across those eight appearances, he's worked 15 ⅔ innings and allowed just five hits with 17 strikeouts and three walks. Not surprisingly, those have been high-leverage innings, to boot. Overall, the Milwaukee bullpen has authored the following numbers: 

2026 Playoffs

53 ⅔

1.34

25.5%

2026 World Series

13

1.38

28.6%

By comparison, the Rays' bullpen during this World Series has a 6.17 ERA and a K% of 8.3. That, more than anything, has been the differentiator thus far. Game 4 figures to be a bullpen-heavy game for Murphy and Milwaukee and perhaps a full-on bullpen game. Brandon Woodruff had been slated to be the Game 4 opener, but his appearance in the Game 3 blowout probably changes those plans. Whatever the specifics, Tampa Bay is going to have to find its way to doing some damage against the deep and excellent Brewers pen if it's going to survive another day. 

Along similar lines, the Rays badly need to get some length out of starter Griffin Jax in Game 4 so as to minimize their reliance on the bullpen. Jax, though, hasn't lasted more than four innings in a start in more than a month. 

Will Junior Caminero's power show up?

This World Series so far has not been rich with power, as the two teams have combined for just two home runs through the first three games. Heck, the Brewers in their 10-run onslaught in Game 3 didn't even hit a ball to the pull field. During the regular season, neither of these teams was especially reliant on home run power, but the Rays scored a higher percentage of their runs via the longball than the Brewers did. In other words, this present power outage has been more damaging to Tampa Bay. Writ small, we have Junior Caminero, the Rays' 23-year-old rising star and their richest power source. During the regular season, he smacked 42 home runs and averaged a homer every 14.7 at-bats. During these playoffs, however, he's got only one home run in 43 at-bats. That lone home run came in the American League Championship Series against Cleveland. Nothing would help the Tampa Bay cause of forcing a Game 5 like a Caminero uprising on Tuesday night. It's overdue, for sure. 

Who will be the World Series MVP?

The Brewers need to win one game before the Rays win four in order to hoist the World Series trophy for the first time in franchise history. As such, the 2026 World Series MVP is overwhelmingly likely to be a Brewer. That leads us to the following question: William Contreras or Jackson Chourio?

Each has a strong case for the honor. 

Most Valuable Brewer?

Jackson Chourio and William Contreras both have outstanding numbers in this World Series.

.571

AVG

.538

.571

OBP

.571

.643

SLG

.538

Contreras, the Brewers' catcher and warrior-poet, has snuffed out the usually potent Tampa Bay running game, handled the pitching staff with his usual aplomb, shown a knack and timely and successful ABS challenges, and more than done his job at the plate. Through the first three games of this series, Contreras has put up a slash line of .538/.571/.538 with a walk, three RBI, and a run scored. 

As for the 22-year-old Chourio, he's fresh off a four-hit performance in Game 3, and for the series, he's batting .571/.571/.643 with three steals in as many attempts, and four runs scored. 

It's hard to overlook Contreras' broad-based excellence this series, but Chourio may have the momentum. Sal Frelick and Ashby could certainly state their cases with a standout performance and Game 4, but right now it looks like Contreras or Chourio. 

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