Al-Shabaab regains ground in Somalia as AU forces draw down
Somalia is facing a resurgent al-Shabaab, with the al-Qaeda-linked group retaking territory and intensifying attacks even as the United States continues airstrikes against it.
By late 2025, the group had recaptured at least five districts in the Lower Shabelle and Middle Jubba regions, reversing earlier government gains. It has also stepped up bombings in the capital, Mogadishu, including a February attack near the international airport that killed more than 30 people.
The deterioration has coincided with the drawdown of African Union forces, whose gradual withdrawal has left gaps that the Somali National Army has struggled to fill. Analysts warn that the group has been quick to move into areas vacated by the AU mission.
US Africa Command has continued to carry out strikes in support of the Somali government, including an operation in June near Welmaro, north of the port city of Kismayo. But air power alone has not reversed the militants' momentum on the ground.
The challenges are compounded by political divisions within Somalia, which analysts describe as one of al-Shabaab's greatest assets. Nearly two decades after it emerged, the group remains one of al-Qaeda's most potent affiliates, and the country's fragile security gains look increasingly precarious.
