Up to 10,000 jobs at risk as US moves to end South Africa’s AGOA benefits

Citrus farmers and workers in export-dependent communities face uncertainty after the US announced plans to end South Africa’s AGOA trade benefits from January 2027.

Thousands of South African jobs could be threatened if the United States goes ahead with plans to end the country’s preferential trade access under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), with Cosatu warning that as many as 10,000 jobs could be lost in a worst-case scenario.

The Western Cape’s citrus industry is also warning of significant exposure. At least 35,000 farm-level jobs in the Western and Northern Cape are sustained by citrus exports to the US, although the industry says it is too early to determine how many could be affected by the proposed withdrawal.

Asked to estimate potential job losses, Cosatu parliamentary co-ordinator Matthew Parks said: “Most likely 3 000 jobs. At most 10 000.”

The warning comes after Washington announced on Monday that it intended to end South Africa’s and Rwanda’s AGOA eligibility from January 1, 2027.

The programme removes ordinary US import duties on qualifying goods from eligible African countries, although additional tariffs may still apply.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer cited concerns about barriers to American trade and investment, corruption, and US national security and foreign policy interests.

Parks identified agriculture, particularly citrus, and manufacturing as vulnerable sectors in the Western Cape.

He said existing US tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump had already cost about 100 jewellery jobs in Cape Town, 450 furniture manufacturing jobs in Atlantis and Malmesbury, and 450 food-canning jobs in Tulbagh. Further losses had also affected Cape Town’s packaging sector.

These losses preceded the proposed AGOA withdrawal.

Cosatu has called for negotiations to continue and for support to be provided to affected workers and businesses. Its proposals include industrial incentives, tax holidays and assistance through the Unemployment Insurance Fund’s Temporary Employment Relief Scheme.

“We cannot afford to abandon a single worker, business, industry or community,” the federation said.

Parks said negotiations should continue even if the January deadline passed, pointing out that countries previously removed from AGOA had later been reinstated.

Cosatu has also criticised the US move to terminate South Africa’s AGOA access.

The Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa said the US buys between 5% and 6% of South Africa’s citrus export volume, but that trade is concentrated in the Western and Northern Cape.

Citrusdal was identified as particularly dependent on American buyers.

Association chairman Gerrit van der Merwe said growers could not easily redirect their fruit to other markets.

“A citrus grower cannot simply divert his crop to another market – markets have different phytosanitary requirements and consumer tastes. Entire orchards have been planted specifically for the US market.”

The association said losing AGOA benefits would expose citrus exports to ordinary US duties generally ranging from 1.5 to 2.5 US cents per kilogram.

Mandarins, lemons and grapefruit would face those duties alongside an existing 12.5% tariff, putting South African exporters at a disadvantage to competitors such as Peru and Chile.

Chief executive Dr Boitshoko Ntshabele said a bilateral trade agreement with the US would be the best solution. Alternatively, she proposed separate AGOA treatment for seasonal fresh produce.

The potential loss of preferential access comes as Western Cape citrus exporters continue to face uncertainty over US tariffs.

Agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo said the US accounted for about 4% of South Africa’s agricultural exports, worth $504 million in 2025.

Losing preferential access would not close the American market to South African products, but could make them less competitive.

He urged exporters to diversify into Asia and the Middle East without abandoning established markets.

Johann Els, chief economist at PSG Financial Services, said the direct effect on national economic growth was likely to be small.

“The bigger concern is the potential impact on business confidence, investment and diplomatic relations between the two countries,” he said.

IMM Graduate School research dean Dr Ernest van Biljon said national trade figures could conceal the impact on individual communities.

Automotive products accounted for 64% of AGOA exports in 2024, although Europe bought more than half of South Africa’s automotive export volumes, he said.

Naamsa, the Automotive Business Council, was approached for comment but had not responded at the time of writing.

Government said South Africa’s AGOA exports fell from $4 billion in 2024 to about $1.7 billion in 2025, representing roughly 10% of the country’s exports to the US.

Most South African exports to the American market entered under ordinary trade terms.

Pretoria said it had offered further trade concessions to Washington and would assess the impact on individual companies while retaining measures introduced in response to earlier US tariffs.

Trade, Industry and Competition Minister Parks Tau said negotiations would continue alongside efforts to find alternative markets and protect jobs.