Venezuela plans biggest debt restructuring in history after Maduro's fall

The figure blows past all forecasts. Venezuela is preparing to acknowledge a debt of almost 240 billion dollars, far above the 150 to 200 billion the market had been expecting until now. The news, revealed by the 'Financial Times', would put Caracas on the brink of the largest restructuring ever seen, ahead even of Greece’s historic default in 2012.The move comes in the wake of the country’s political upheaval. After Nicolás Maduro was captured last January, interim president Delcy Rodríguez has taken the helm and has a clear objective: to strike a deal with creditors before the end of the year and bring Venezuela back to international markets, from which it has been cut off for almost a decade.According to the British daily, US bank Centerview Partners, hired as adviser, is finalising a viability plan that will be published in early July. Before that, later this month, Caracas will unveil a macroeconomic framework painting a bleak picture: an economy shrunk to around 100 billion dollars (source in Spanish), compared with the 370 billion recorded in Hugo Chávez’s last year in office in 2012.Yet one detail is setting off alarm bells: unlike in other major restructurings, the sustainability analysis does not bear the signature of the International Monetary Fund. This is already worrying the Venezuelan opposition, which fears the country could be left in an even more fragile position vis-à-vis its creditors. The IMF itself has kept its distance (source in Spanish) and has clarified that, although it is not taking part in the process, it is maintaining technical contacts with Caracas, with which it resumed relations last April after a seven-year break.The most clearly verified chunk consists of sovereign bonds and debt issued by state oil company PDVSA, about 60 billion, to which a further 40 billion in interest arrears since the default must be added. On top of that come amounts owed to oil companies and suppliers, claims over expropriations carried out in the Chávez era and outstanding loans from China and Russia.For investors, the big question is not so much the headline figure as the oil. The central bank put first-quarter oil revenues at 5.5 billion dollars, a slight improvement on the final stretch of the Maduro era but still a long way from the levels seen before sanctions. Hence the prevailing scepticism: few believe an agreement will be reached in 2026 and most are already looking to 2027.